Henry Huber: We’re back, baby! Hope y’all didn’t miss us and our picks too much! This week should be exciting, with games that have huge playoff implications such as Ohio State vs. Michigan State and Oregon vs. Utah being played. It seems we missed a good bit while we were gone. Texas A&M’s climb came to an end against Ole Miss, Oklahoma finally got knocked down a peg, Purdue didn’t continue their slaughtering of playoff contenders and Michigan kind of proved themselves with a big win over Penn State.
Let’s get into what happened the last time I picked.
Henry’s Last Week (Week 10): 3-2
Henry’s Season: 20-14-1
It seems luck is still on my side, let’s see how much longer that lasts. Let’s see where I went wrong and where I went right two weeks ago.
Army (+2.5) vs. Air Force W
I think we can ignore the fact that the player I highlighted for Army didn’t make a single ounce of impact on this game, right?
Air Force may have outpaced Army in yardage, time-of-possession and first downs, but Army’s jump to a 14-3 lead in the third quarter and strong performance in overtime propelled them to victory in this one. Sorry to keep this one short, but there isn’t too much to cover here.
Liberty (+9.5) vs. Ole Miss L
Despite having an effective offensive performance, Liberty just made too many mistakes in this one. Malik Willis threw three interceptions, all of which came on possessions where Liberty was either in Ole Miss’s territory or driving. Without those interceptions, they don’t just make this game close, they win it.
The Flames played incredibly well and even held Ole Miss’s potent offensive attack to just 27 points, they just needed to capitalize more than they did. They had three drives in the first half where they got into Ole Miss territory but despite that, they finished the half with a fat zero on the scoreboard. They were able to capitalize more the second half, but still had drives with promise that ultimately produced nothing. An unfortunate loss for Freeze’s Flames, but they’ll bounce back.
Michigan State vs. Purdue (+3) W
There is nothing better in picking games than correctly predicting an upset for the right reasons. Michigan State was having a great season up to that point but there were multiple signs that they could fall at any minute. They had close calls against Nebraska and Indiana, two teams that are already ineligible for a bowl game, and their pass defense is one of the worst in the nation. On top of that fact, they were facing one an offense that relies almost entirely on the pass, ranking within the top-15 in the category at the time. So, what was the result of that?
Well, Purdue threw the ball for over 500 yards, ultimately winning by multiple scores. The writing was on the wall, but maybe they can pull off a miracle against C.J Stroud and Ohio State (probably not).
Mississippi State (+4.5) vs. Arkansas W
Wow, what a great game this was. Mike Leach’s Mississippi State team has impressed me a lot this season, especially down the stretch, and they played a great game against an Arkansas team that’s now 7-3. However, despite a huge fourth-quarter comeback that gave them a 5-point lead with two minutes left in the game, Mississippi State could not finish the job, allowing Arkansas to complete a 75-yard drive to give themselves the lead with just twenty seconds remaining.
Mississippi State did manage to put themselves in field goal range at the end of the game though, which was incredibly impressive. It’s a shame that their kicker missed it. Ahh what could have been.
San Jose State vs. Nevada (-11) L
I should’ve stuck with betting the + I guess, oh well. San Jose State slowed Nevada’s potent passing game about as well as they could, holding Charlie Strong to just 5.81 yards per pass and intercepting two of his passes. A huge pick-six by Nevada gave them a 17-7 lead in the third quarter, but San Jose didn’t lose any of the fight they had and made it a game again.
San Jose State played their best game of the season, looking reminiscent of the team we bore witness to last season and the team we expected them to be this season. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to pull it off in the end, as Nevada did make a game-winning field goal as time expired, but it was still an impressive showing. This team has grown a lot since their colossal implosion against Western Michigan in Week 4.
Henry’s Picks:
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma, 11:00 AM CT, FOX
The Pick: Iowa State +3.5
I convinced myself a couple weeks ago that Oklahoma would lose their last two games of the season against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. My confidence in those premonitions has only grown since then. Sure, they are “looking to bounce back” and are “fired up” after their loss to Baylor, but that doesn’t make up for the fact that Oklahoma is overrated.
“But Henry, they started the season 9-and-…”
You don’t have to remind me. But take a closer look at their schedule. They almost got upset by Tulane, who’s 1-9 now. They almost lost to both 3-7 Nebraska and 4-6 West Virginia. They beat Kansas State and Texas by one score each (Kansas State is solid at least, but Texas is also 4-6). They got outpaced offensively by a TCU team that did not have their star running back (yes they won by 21 points, but look at the stats). They were a few miracle plays away from losing to KANSAS, then followed that up with their best game of the season in a blowout win against Texas Tech and their worst game of their season in a two-score loss to Baylor.
Iowa State is inconsistent, but at least they (usually) show up in big games. Their losses to Texas Tech and West Virginia are inexcusable and baffling, especially considering the fact that those losses are surrounded by wins against Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas (by 23). I expect them to come out with the same mentality they had against the established teams in the Big-12 and I also believe that Oklahoma has no chance.
Score: Iowa State 56 Oklahoma 10
SMU vs. Cincinnati, 2:30 PM CT, ESPN
The Pick: SMU +10
Yes I know it’s popular to bag on Cincinnati as of late, but that’s not why I’m going with the + on this one. I’m going with this because I believe that these teams are almost even (Houston is a little bit closer to Cincinnati but hear me out).
If these teams had played in October, I probably would have gone the other way, but this Cincinnati team is not the same one that beat Notre Dame by multiple scores and crushed Temple by 52 points. They are still good, the best team in the American conference, but they aren’t a team that’s going to crush every conference opponent in their path. Many people would point to Cincinnati’s secondary that is top-5 in passing yards given up per game as the trump card to SMU’s explosive passing game. But my counter for that is the fact that the Bearcats have played five teams that are ranked 100th or lower in passing yards per game. The best passing team they’ve faced is Miami (OH), who is ranked 31st according to teamrankings.com, but they’ve switched quarterbacks since then.
SMU’s latest performance against UCF, a dominant 55-28 victory, is similar to when Cincinnati beat UCF 56-21 fresh off their rout of Temple. The biggest difference is that Cincy’s game against UCF was over a month ago and they haven’t looked that good since.
Score: SMU 38 Cincinnati 34
Oregon vs. Utah, 6:30 PM CT, ABC
The Pick: Oregon +3
I’m picking too many pluses again, forgive me. This is a coin-flip game. Each team is statistically even, with evenly tough schedules. While Utah has had more impressive wins as of late, with a three-score win over UCLA and a 52-7 blowout win over Stanford, they’ve also shown brief flashes of inconsistency, some of which took too long to dull. They lost a tough one against Oregon State and only managed to beat the 1-9 Arizona by nine points in their most recent battle. And before that, they suffered rough losses to both BYU and San Diego State. This team’s highs are impressive, but they have a hard time being consistent.
Oregon has had some ugly wins lately, but they haven’t broken since their loss to Stanford over a month ago, winning their last five games by an average margin of 11.4 points per game and doing it in multiple different ways in the process. One week Anthony Brown will throw the ball for over 300 yards with multiple touchdowns and another week, he’ll rush for 120 and throw the ball less. One week, they’ll rely heavily on Travis Dye and he’ll end up rushing for 200+ yards and another week they’ll split the carries throughout the lineup. This team’s adaptability is impressive and with them having an advantage over Utah in the turnover department as well, I believe they have the advantage in this one.
Score: Oregon 31 Utah 24
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss, 6:30 PM CT, SECN
The Pick: Vanderbilt +36
I’m not a huge fan of big spreads, but I figured I should pick one since Jared suffered with that Georgia-South Carolina pick a couple weeks ago. I decided to go the other way with this one though and it’s not just because 36 is a big number in football. I’m picking it this way based on each team’s last couple of weeks.
Vanderbilt is widely considered to be bad at football, but they haven’t been quite as bad recently as they’ve been in years past. Take their most recent game against Kentucky as a solid example of that. Kentucky fell off a little bit after their undefeated, 6-0 start to the season, but they were still 21.5 point favorites in their matchup against Vanderbilt. They did not cover that spread, as Vanderbilt lost by 17. The game before that? It was a nine-point loss to Missouri, a team that was 16.5-point favorites. Skipping their blowout loss against Mississippi State (yes, this point isn’t completely devoid of contradictions), we get to their game against South Carolina. The Commodores had a 97.9% chance of winning the game with two minutes left and blew it, ultimately losing the game by one. However, they were nineteen point underdogs.
If I were to base this simply off of Vanderbilt beating the spread over the past month, I would have a 75% chance of getting it right, but that’s not the only thing I’m going off of. Ole Miss hasn’t scored more than 31 points since early October against Arkansas and though I know for a fact they will break that against Vanderbilt tomorrow, I don’t see them winning by more than 30. Their offense hasn’t necessarily slowed down, but their ability to score has. They scored 31 points against subpar LSU and Tennessee defenses, and 27 against Liberty, which are solid scores but not by 2021-22 Ole Miss standards.
Score: Ole Miss 41 Vanderbilt 14
Wyoming vs. Utah State, 7:00 PM CT, CBSSN
The Pick: Utah State -5.5
This is the second time I’ve picked a game involving Wyoming, and the second time I’ve been baffled about the spread. Don’t get me wrong, Wyoming isn’t completely horrible… well… honestly? They kind of are. Just take a look at their schedule, especially recently. Their only win since September came by two touchdowns against Colorado State, one of the worst teams in the Mountain West. That’s also the only conference game they’ve won. They have averaged just 13.6 points in their last six games as well.
The best way I can describe this team is as a discount San Diego State. They have one of the strongest defenses in the Mountain West, but their offense leaves a lot of room for improvement. The difference is that the Aztecs do enough to get the job done in most cases, as they are 9-1 with many key wins. Meanwhile, Wyoming is just always a step or two behind. They won’t get blown out but they cannot find a way to win to save their lives.
A 10-15 point spread would be a lot more accurate, and it’d make me more skeptical in picking this game. I can see Wyoming hanging in there for a little bit but ultimately, they’ll end up losing to another team that’s just a little bit out of their league.
Score: Utah State 28 Wyoming 13
Jared’s Last Week (Week 10): 1-4
Jared’s Season: 18-22
Hmph. South Carolina was my only win (Proud of that). Just keep swimming, I guess.
Jared’s Picks:
Penn State vs. Rutgers, 11:00 AM CT, BTN
The Pick: Rutgers +18.5
The Scarlet Knights have had an up and down go this year. Highs of beating the living heck out of Indiana and lows of getting rocked by Wisconsin and Ohio State have defined their season. But, I think this pick is more about my lack of faith in Penn State’s ability and focus than Rutgers’s overall ability. A storm is brewing behind James Franklin regarding his future there, and after a banishing from any hope of competing for the Big Ten East title with a loss to Michigan last week, I don’t trust Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions to do enough to cover a rather large spread. Go, go Greg Schiano!
Score: Penn State 24, Rutgers 14
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia, 2:30 PM CT, ESPN2
The Pick: Pitt -14.5
Talk about two high powered offenses. The Cavaliers have Brennan Armstrong, the NCAA’s leading passer for multiple weeks, and the Panthers have Heisman contender Kenny Pickett. Slight problem for Virginia: Armstrong has been nursing an undisclosed injury, one that caused him to miss their game against Notre Dame last week. Bronco Mendenhall has not given an update on his status, so that will be something to watch for. Should Armstrong play, I’d feel a little less confident in this pick, but I still think Pitt has the pieces to cover anyways; they’re 8-2 ATS this season. Buy it down to -13.5 so you and I can both sleep better.
Score: Pitt 49, Virginia 33
Alabama vs. Arkansas, 2:30 PM CT, CBS
The Pick: Alabama -20.5
It’s been a while since I felt good about picking Alabama, but this game is attractive. When LSU was able to run their offense with pace, that was when they had the most success against Arkansas’s defense last week. Guess who loves to keep defenses off balance with pace and explosiveness? Bryce Young, Brian Robinson, and Jameson Williams do. Arkansas’s only hope is to hope KJ Jefferson and Treylon Burks can muster enough offense to slow the bleed. I think Alabama’s offense gets geared up in a big way for these two crucial upcoming games against Auburn and (most likely) Georgia for their playoff chances. Three touchdowns isn’t that much, right?
Score: Alabama 42, Arkansas 20
UTSA vs. UAB, 2:30 PM CT, ESPN+
The Pick: UTSA -4.5
Cincinnati, Schmincinnati. You know the mid-major the bettors like? The 8-2 ATS Roadrunners. This is arguably their biggest test of the season against a very talented UAB team. But UTSA is ready. They have a great two-pronged attack in Frank Harris at QB and Sincere McCormick at RB. Trust this offense to get the job done and stay undefeated on the year. Don’t be surprised to see UTSA in big bowl projections and sneaking up on an unsuspecting Power 5 in December.
Score: UTSA 35, UAB 28
UCLA vs. USC, 3:00 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: UCLA -3.5
I love this rivalry game. A ton of passion and desire to beat each team’s LA rival is there every year. Unfortunately for USC, they’re severely outmatched. Both QB Kedon Slovis and WR Drake London, their two best offensive threats, will be missing the game, and London is out for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, UCLA’s QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet are having solid seasons. I think the Bruins have that extra juice to get the job done and earn those bragging rights for the first time since 2018.
