With Alabama losing this weekend, every team from the previous playoff now has at least one loss, and two of them are out of playoff contention barring a miracle. That leaves multiple teams with a chance to make their College Football Playoff debut come New Year’s Eve.
Every sports season begins with questions, and those questions often get answered relatively quickly. In this particular one, the questions in the preseason included: Can Clemson contend after the departures of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne? Will there be a PAC-12 contender this season? Finally, after having their best seasons in recent memory, how will Iowa State, Cincinnati and North Carolina do?
At the time of writing this, Clemson (Preseason: No. 3), Iowa State (Preseason: No. 7), North Carolina (Preseason: No. 10) and USC (Preseason: No 14) are all unranked and out of playoff consideration. The latter three have suffered at least two losses already, and all of USC and UNC’s losses have come against unranked teams.
On the other hand, Cincinnati and Oregon are legitimate contenders. Ignoring Oregon’s recent loss to Stanford (we’ll get to that), these teams have looked like teams primed to claim the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, with both teams having controlling wins over Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively.
Cincinnati defeated their two most formidable opponents in Notre Dame and Indiana already. So even though there isn’t much room to impress the committee (with their best remaining opponent being SMU), they don’t exactly need it right now. With Alabama and Penn State losing this weekend, they are primed to take a spot in the top four.
Maintaining that spot through the season is a different story, but they are more than just in the picture for now.
Oregon’s path to the playoff had been similar, with them beating their most formidable opponent in Ohio State, and the rest of their season featuring no ranked teams. The only problem is, they let their guard down.
The Ducks lost to an unranked Stanford, pushing them from third to eighth in the polls and causing the probability that they will compete in the playoff to plummet. Alabama might’ve gotten upset as well, but the difference between their situations is that Alabama has strong teams remaining on their schedule with a top team waiting for them in the conference championship.
If Alabama wins out and defeats No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship, they have a much better argument to be in the playoff than Oregon. The only problem is the other teams that stand in their way.
Five Big 10 teams are considered playoff contenders at the moment. With that in mind, it’s expected that at least one of those teams will make it to the playoff.
No. 2 Iowa just won their most challenging game of the season by far. With Minnesota and Purdue’s best remaining opponents, they should make it to the Big 10 Championship unscathed (barring any upsets, of course). However, the Eastern Division is a lot less straightforward, featuring four playoff contenders that control their destiny in Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State.
I expect the Big Ten East to come down to Ohio State and Penn State, with Michigan and Michigan State still being relatively unproven, but anything can happen, and I wouldn’t completely write them off just yet. However, there isn’t much room for error, and if either of those teams ends up with multiple losses on their repertoire, they will not make it to the playoff.
Other teams standing in the way include Georgia, as mentioned earlier, Cincinnati, and undefeated Oklahoma. Georgia could lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship and still grab a spot in the playoff, but Cincinnati and Oklahoma do not have that luxury.
Cincinnati could go undefeated and still miss the playoff. On the other hand, if Oklahoma or Oklahoma State goes undefeated in the Big 10 Champion, or loses one and Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Bearcats could win at No. 5. They may make it, and they could still pass the eye test and surpass one of those teams, but they may not control their destiny.
Teams that currently control their destiny are Georgia, Alabama, Iowa, the four Big 10 East contenders, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. These teams can win out and grab a spot in the playoff, while Cincinnati needs a few things to go their way, and Oregon needs a miracle.
My current prediction for the playoff goes as follows:
Every sports season begins with questions, and those questions often get answered relatively quickly. In this particular one, the questions in the preseason included: Can Clemson contend after the departures of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne? Will there be a PAC-12 contender this season? Finally, after having their best seasons in recent memory, how will Iowa State, Cincinnati and North Carolina do?
At the time of writing this, Clemson (Preseason: No. 3), Iowa State (Preseason: No. 7), North Carolina (Preseason: No. 10) and USC (Preseason: No 14) are all unranked and out of playoff consideration. The latter three have suffered at least two losses already, and all of USC and UNC’s losses have come against unranked teams.
On the other hand, Cincinnati and Oregon are legitimate contenders. Ignoring Oregon’s recent loss to Stanford (we’ll get to that), these teams have looked like teams primed to claim the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, with both teams having controlling wins over Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively.
Cincinnati defeated their two most formidable opponents in Notre Dame and Indiana already. So even though there isn’t much room to impress the committee (with their best remaining opponent being SMU), they don’t exactly need it right now. With Alabama and Penn State losing this weekend, they are primed to take a spot in the top four.
Maintaining that spot through the season is a different story, but they are more than just in the picture for now.
Oregon’s path to the playoff had been similar, with them beating their most formidable opponent in Ohio State, and the rest of their season featuring no ranked teams. The only problem is, they let their guard down.
The Ducks lost to an unranked Stanford, pushing them from third to eighth in the polls and causing the probability that they will compete in the playoff to plummet. Alabama might’ve gotten upset as well, but the difference between their situations is that Alabama has strong teams remaining on their schedule with a top team waiting for them in the conference championship.
If Alabama wins out and defeats No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship, they have a much better argument to be in the playoff than Oregon. The only problem is the other teams that stand in their way.
Five Big 10 teams are considered playoff contenders at the moment. With that in mind, it’s expected that at least one of those teams will make it to the playoff.
No. 2 Iowa just won their most challenging game of the season by far. With Minnesota and Purdue’s best remaining opponents, they should make it to the Big 10 Championship unscathed (barring any upsets, of course). However, the Eastern Division is a lot less straightforward, featuring four playoff contenders that control their destiny in Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State.
I expect the Big Ten East to come down to Ohio State and Penn State, with Michigan and Michigan State still being relatively unproven, but anything can happen, and I wouldn’t completely write them off just yet. However, there isn’t much room for error, and if either of those teams ends up with multiple losses on their repertoire, they will not make it to the playoff.
Other teams standing in the way include Georgia, as mentioned earlier, Cincinnati, and undefeated Oklahoma. Georgia could lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship and still grab a spot in the playoff, but Cincinnati and Oklahoma do not have that luxury.
Cincinnati could go undefeated and still miss the playoff. On the other hand, if Oklahoma or Oklahoma State goes undefeated in the Big 10 Champion, or loses one and Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Bearcats could win at No. 5. They may make it, and they could still pass the eye test and surpass one of those teams, but they may not control their destiny.
Teams that currently control their destiny are Georgia, Alabama, Iowa, the four Big 10 East contenders, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. These teams can win out and grab a spot in the playoff, while Cincinnati needs a few things to go their way, and Oregon needs a miracle.
My current prediction for the playoff goes as follows:
- Georgia (13-0)
- Ohio State (12-1)
- Cincinnati (13-0)
- Iowa (12-1)
- Oregon (12-1)
- Alabama (11-2)
With as crazy of a season as we’ve had so far, a lot will likely change. Every week has changed things up, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens next.
Who will maintain success? Who will fumble their chances away?
