Well, let me be the one to point you in the right direction.
Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina, December 17 (5:00 PM CT), ESPN2
Spread: Coastal Carolina (-11.5)
What better way to start this list off than with some quality upset potential (and on the first night of bowl season no less). Coastal Carolina is the obvious favorite in this one, sporting a 10-2 record and an average point differential per game (APD) of 20.4. They’ve dominated the majority of their opponents, but there’s just one problem.
They are 0-2 against teams with records above .500. Their two quality opponents were Appalachian State and Georgia State, who they lost to by 2 and 3 respectively. Obviously, that sample size is small, and they would likely have had more success against bowl-eligible teams had they played more of them, but it’s still worth noting.
Northern Illinois on the other hand has a large sample size of above .500 matchups, playing in nine and winning five of them. They defeated the likes of Eastern Michigan, Toledo and Kent State on their way to claiming the MAC title, and they certainly can put up a lot of points, even against strong defenses.
In an early loss against Wyoming, a team with one of the strongest defenses in the Mountain West, they scored 43 points and had 477 yards of total offense. Turnovers were their downfall in that one, and that’s one of the questions going into this matchup: can Northern Illinois hold onto the ball against a strong Coastal Carolina defense?
While it’s still easy to see why Coastal is the favorite to win, I believe that the spread is too high. However, if you bet money on that and lose, do not blame me. I’m just a reporter after all.
UTSA vs. San Diego State, December 21 (6:30 PM CT), ESPN
Spread: UTSA -2
This one is a little more obvious. Each team has been incredibly impressive this season, going undefeated against Power 5 teams and sporting the best records in their respective conferences.
San Diego State’s Power 5 wins were especially impressive. They dominated Arizona before winning an overtime battle against the eventual PAC-12 champions in Utah.
However, where UTSA lacks big-name wins (their only Power 5 win came against Illinois), they’ve made up for by being more consistent than the Aztecs. The only loss they suffered came in a game in which they did not have their star quarterback while San Diego State suffered a double-digit loss to Fresno State and an embarrassing blowout loss to Utah State in the Mountain West championship with healthy lineups.
Despite offensive woes and inconsistency, the Aztecs have managed to win an array of big games this season and I guarantee they will find a way to make this one interesting. The biggest question for their team going into this game is going to be regarding who handles quarterback duties, as that job has switched many times this season.
These teams are some of the bests the Group of 5 has to offer, and I recommend tuning in to this one if you have the chance.
SMU vs. Virginia, December 29 (10:00 AM CT), ESPN
Spread: Virginia (-2)
Did anyone watch Virginia vs. BYU a couple of weeks ago? No?
Okay, did anyone watch the highlights? Yeah, I thought so. If you liked what you saw there, you will thoroughly enjoy this game, I guarantee it.
The prospect of two offensive heavyweights tearing up paper-thin defenses is exciting, and this is the best chance you’ll get to see just that throughout bowl season, maybe even this entire season in general. Each team ranks in the top-15 in passing yards per game, with Virginia nearly eclipsing Western Kentucky to claim the top spot in the category with an absurd 397 passing yards per game (against FBS competition).
Defense? Neither team has heard of it. SMU ranks near the bottom in the passing yards given up per game and you won’t need to scroll too far up to find Virginia. SMU also averages 161.4 rushing yards per game against FBS competition, which is relevant considering Virginia ranks near the bottom in that category as well (For reference, BYU’s Tyler Allgeier rushed for 266 yards against the squad).
The Over/Under for the game is 71.0 and honestly, if I were you, I would take the over for this one. Each team is looking to prove themselves as well after each suffering slumps in the latter half of their seasons, and that just adds to the excitement in this matchup.
Iowa State vs. Clemson, December 29 (4:45 PM CT), ESPN
Spread: Iowa State (–1.5)
If someone had told me Iowa State and Clemson would match up in a bowl game at the start of the season, I honestly would have believed them. If they had told me that they would face off in the Cheez-It Bowl, I would have laughed.
Each team began the season ranked in the top-10 and had College Football Playoff aspirations. Those aspirations quickly fell apart, as both teams dropped two of their first four games and even spent much of the season unranked.
Neither team played to their potential and mistakes drastically cost them throughout the season, but they are still great teams that can provide us with an entertaining game at the end of the day.
Clemson bounced back in a big way in the latter half of the season, winning their last five games and finishing it off with a 30-0 victory over their in-state rival, South Carolina. They concluded the season with a respectable 9-3 record and narrowly missed out on sneaking into the ACC championship game.
On the other hand, Iowa State’s season was a roller coaster until its conclusion. The Cyclones defeated the Big-12 runner-up in Oklahoma State and had a commanding win over a solid Kansas State team whilst also dropping questionable games against Texas Tech and West Virginia. They also barely lost to Baylor and Oklahoma, teams that would eventually be featured in the Fiesta and Alamo Bowl respectively.
This proves that they can keep up with some of the best teams in the country, and that makes this one worth keeping an eye on. It would be nice to see Brock Purdy and Breece Hall pull off one last victory for their squad as well, with each player heading to the draft after long, respectable careers with the program.
Washington State vs. Miami, December 31 (11:00 AM CT), CBS
Spread: Miami (–2.5)
I’m most interested in this one because of the latter half of their seasons.
These teams started the season slowly, to say the least, with Washington State dropping three of their first four games and Miami dropping four of their first six. Their seasons seemed dead in the water, but a switch flipped at some point and suddenly, they became respectable.
Washington State went 6-2 in their final eight games, trumping the likes of Oregon State (7-5) and Arizona State (8-4) while also giving No. 13 BYU and No. 14 Oregon runs for their money. They finished with the second-best record in the PAC-12 North, falling behind aforementioned Oregon.
And after losing to Virginia and North Carolina heartbreakingly to fall to 2-4, Miami found a way to do some heartbreaking themselves. They took down ACC heavyweights in No. 18 NC State and No. 12 Pittsburgh and ultimately won five of their last six games to finish the regular season 7-5 and second in the ACC Coastal Division.
They did this on the back of freshman quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who was electric in the latter half of the season. He stumbled out of the game against Virginia and North Carolina but seemed to find his footing after that, never looking back on his way to throwing for nearly 3000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in just nine starts.
Miami’s explosive offense has an intriguing matchup against Washington State, whose defensive efficiency has wreaked havoc on the PAC-12, giving up an average of 22.2 points in their last five games and finishing the season ranked in the top-5 in takeaways against FBS competition.
Bowl season has always had interesting matchups leading up to the bigger games and if you are an avid college football fan like myself, you’ll probably enjoy these games. More games have potential too, these are just my top five sleepers. Here’s the rest:
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State, December 18 (10:00 AM CT), ESPN
Spread: Appalachian State (-3)
UAB vs. BYU, December 18 (2:30 PM CT), ABC
Spread: BYU (-7)
Utah State vs. Oregon State, December 18 (6:30 PM CT), ABC
Spread: Oregon State (-7)
UCF vs. Florida, December 23 (6:00 PM CT), ESPN
Spread: Florida (-6.5)
Western Michigan vs. Nevada, December 27 (10:00 AM CT), ESPN
Spread: Western Michigan (-6)
Tennessee vs. Purdue, December 30 (2:00 PM CT), ESPN
Spread: Tennessee (-4.5)
Wisconsin vs. Arizona State, December 30 (9:30 PM CT), ESPN
Spread: Wisconsin (-7)
Central Michigan vs. Boise State, December 31 (1:00 PM CT), Barstool
Spread: Boise State (-8)
Penn State vs. Arkansas, January 1 (11:00 AM CT), ESPN2
Spread: Penn State (-2.5)
Other than that, enjoy the holidays and Go Bearcats!