Percentage point lead, margin of error and survey size are terms that Bobby Jindal and Kathleen Blanco are well versed in.
But Christopher Kenny, a political science associate professor, said the results from those pre-election surveys may not be as important to voters as they are to candidates.
“If one of [the candidates in the runoff] were to surge ahead, then the independent voters may end up going with that candidate,” Kenny said. “But I don’t think [early survey polls] are a big factor in this governor’s election.”
The only real impact the polls will have on this race will be to stimulate turnout, Kenny said.
“If the polls show the race will be close, then more people will go vote,” Kenny said.
Steven Siegel, an English freshman, said survey polls released prior to an election have no bearing on which candidate he will vote for.
“I figure I am not going to choose someone because they are winning,” Siegel said. “I always figured the polls were there to just give you an estimate of who should win, but that should not affect who you vote for.”
Angie Burgos, an art junior, said she keeps in mind who is leading in the polls when she votes.
“It does not alter my vote, because I already have in mind who I will vote for,” Burgos said. “But it does help me see where my person stands and if that person has a chance.”
Wayne Parent, political science chairman, said early polls provide more than an estimate of the winner and loser – they also provide campaign financing leverage.
“Polls seem to be quite important,” Parent said. “We know that when poll numbers show a candidate in the lead or has a good chance to win, campaign contributions seem to come flowing in. The perception that you can win, helps you because it encourages the supporters to put their money behind the candidate.”
Campaign pollsters understand the financial impact of polls and try to get their candidates’ numbers up early in the campaign, Parent said.
“At the beginning of the campaign you see all of the poll talk because that is when they are raising their money,” Parent said. “But toward the end of the campaign they like to say it is nip and tuck because they want to get their voters out.”
The ability to increase campaign contributions through polls often leads pollsters to use unethical means to raise their candidates percentages, Parent said.
If candidates want the public to think they are ahead or doing quite well, then they will distribute information from polls that are not legitimate, Parent said.
In these push polls – usually administered via the telephone – pollsters ask a series of questions that make their candidate look good or the other candidate look bad, Parent said. They then ask who the person will vote for. Parent said by doing this, voters are persuaded to vote for the candidate that is portrayed in a brighter light.
“Push polls are campaign polls,” Parent said. “They are used to campaign and not gauge public opinion.”
Parent said voters can differentiate between valid polls and push polls by looking at the research provided.
If the polls do not specify how the information used to calculate the poll was obtained, then it is probably a push poll, Parent said.
The latest Verne Kennedy poll has Jindal with a seven point advantage over Blanco heading into the final week of campaigning.