Upcoming elections at the state and national levels will focus on strong party support, as well as current issues concerning security and economic well-being across the country.
The recent Louisiana governor’s race started off very close, and the upcoming runoff will be close as well, according to a top political analyst.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. had the pre-election percentages between Bobby Jindal and Kathleen Blanco pretty close, said political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr.
Cook, originally from Shreveport, studied government at Georgetown University. He is editor and publisher of “The Cook Political Report,” a non-partisan report that has analyzed politics since 1984.
Cook also is a political analyst for the National Journal Group and writes weekly for National Journal magazine and CongressDailyAM. He also writes a regular column for the Washington Quarterly and is a political analyst for NBC News.
Cook spoke Monday as part of the fall 2003 Media and Politics Lecture Series, hosted by Louisiana’s Old State Capitol and the Reilly Center for Media and Public Affairs.
The purpose of the program is to help bring people and government together and encourage public participation in government and the political process.
“I am stunned that Jindal has done as well as he has,” Cook said.
This race is interesting because there are no white males in the runoff, Cook said. It will be the first time an Indian-American or a woman will be Louisiana’s governor.
“There are questions about if Blanco can energize Democrats like say, Ieyoub could,” Cook said.
One thing that could energize Democrats and unify the party behind Blanco is George W. Bush coming to Louisiana. Jindal will do better if he continues to campaign on his own and keep people from Washington out, Cook said.
Bush does not have to worry as much about party support as much as he does issues affecting the country, Cook said.
Unlike his father, Bush does not have a fracture within the Republican party, Cook said. Bush will never get cross-ways with his party base.
Bush’s chances of being re-elected in the upcoming 2004 election are dependent on the economy and the situation in Iraq rather than on who the democratic candidate is going to be, according to Cook.
“If I could know one of two things, either what the status of the economy was going to be, or who the democratic candidate was going to be; I would rather know the country’s economic status, or even the status of the war in Iraq,” Cook said.
If the economy is growing and the Iraq situation is good, then Bush will have a much better chance of getting re-elected, Cook said. It will not matter who the democratic candidate is.
If the economy is bad and the situation in Iraq is not going well, Bush’s chances are much lower, Cook said.
The frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination is Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
“Dean has tapped into something other candidates haven’t,” Cook said. “He is using the resentment democrats feel toward their party leaders to gain support.”
Dean’s approach is something that would not have worked 12 years ago and probably would not work 12 years in the future, Cook said.
Cook said he is skeptical about how someone like Gen. Wesley Cook would do in a presidential election.
“Most people who are accomplished in business or military usually fail the first time out because they think their experience in their field alone qualifies them for the job, but the expertise does not transfer over,” Cook said.
One of the key factors that help, determine the democratic candidate is money, Cook said. Nine of the last 10 nominations went to the candidate who raised the most money the year before the presidential election.
Dean raised $15 million by the end of this past quarter and has 100 paid staffers.
The amount Dean raised last quarter is more money than former President Bill Clinton raised in any single month for his 1992 campaign, Cook said.
Bush’s approval rating is at the same percentage Reagan, Nixon and Clinton had in October of their third years, Cook said. He is in the 50 to 55 percent zone, which means he is doing fine.
We will know more in January and February 2004 as the election gets closer and the approval rating is more important, Cook said.
Reagan, Nixon and Clinton saw increases in approval ratings in February of their re-election years, while George H. Bush and Jimmy Carter saw approval ratings fall, Cook said. The first three were re-elected, and Bush and Carter did not win a second term.