With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, the margin of error is greater than ever for teams to qualify in spite of shortcomings over the length of the season.
However, LSU has seemingly burnt all the way through that with only three games remaining.
Even with the unpredictability of the playoff selection system – being that it’s the first year of the expanded format – it seems almost certain that LSU was effectively eliminated from contention by its 42-13 loss to Alabama on Saturday.
“They’re disappointed, and I’m disappointed that we didn’t live up to the standard of LSU football,” head coach Brian Kelly said.
LSU fell behind Alabama early on as the offense settled twice for field goals, including once after being stopped at the goal line.
Costly turnovers by redshirt junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier at both the end of the second half and the beginning of the first half brought positive LSU momentum to a screeching halt. Both times, the Crimson Tide cashed in for a touchdown.
LSU’s attempts to catch up offensively in the second half proved mostly unfruitful, as the Tigers didn’t score again after the two first half field goals until a touchdown with 17 seconds remaining.
Much of the suspense was gone from the game by the fourth quarter, as was much of the energy from a crowd that had begun the game with deafening vigor.
“As coaches, we’ve got to put our guys in a better position to succeed,” Kelly said. “That’s the challenge that I have. I own that.”
Two weeks after LSU struggled mightily defending the quarterback run against Texas A&M, the Tigers showed little improvement on that front. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, known for his electric ability on the ground, went off for 185 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Alabama had its way with LSU in the trenches.
It was an example of a worrying team-wide regression for the Tigers: the defense had been on an impressive upward trajectory midway through the season with standout performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas.
However, LSU’s last two games have been perhaps its worst on that end of the ball, as the Tigers have allowed an average of 398 yards across those two games, including 276.5 on the ground.
The Tiger offense and specifically Nussmeier have also taken a step back since the early part of the season. In the four games since LSU’s September win over South Alabama, Nussmeier has thrown for 1,214 yards and six touchdowns to seven interceptions for a completion percentage of 54.8%.
Before that, he had 1,652 yards, 15 touchdowns to four interceptions and a 69.6% completion percentage across five games.
“He’s a first-year starter,” Kelly said. “He’s learning the ropes.”
Kelly has defended Nussmeier in the past by pointing out the lack of help he’s gotten from his running game. LSU’s rushing attack did struggle again in this one. Aside from a 45-yard gallop by freshman running back Caden Durham, the Tigers mustered only 78 rushing yards for an average of 3.7 yards.
The game was also characterized by LSU’s inability to get off the field on third down defensively. Alabama converted 10 of its 13 third downs, and LSU didn’t get its first third down stop until four minutes into the second quarter.
That was mostly due to Alabama’s excellent ability to keep its offense on schedule and create short third downs. Even on 3rd-and-medium or longer, though, Alabama had all the answers against the LSU defense.
LSU’s execution and preparation in all phases has left much to be desired over the past two losses. As a result, it’s now Alabama whose left playing to sustain playoff aspirations instead of the Tigers.
