With only one week remaining in one of the most tumultuous NFL regular seasons in recent memory, the playoff picture is far from resolved.
Only one of the twelve seeds between both conferences is locked in, as Kansas City has secured the fifth spot in the AFC. Four teams from each conference are jockeying for first-round byes, and squads assumed to be a shoe-in for No. 1 seeds a few weeks ago need wins in the final week to stay on top of the playoff race.
Six teams have a shot to clinch the three spots up for grabs in the NFC, whereas four AFC clubs are contending for the final Wild Card slot. All four of the NFC’s divisions will crown a winner on Sunday, and de facto playoff games between Green Bay and Chicago, and Philadelphia and Dallas, will determine the third and fourth seeds.
Following are conference-by-conference breakdowns of every playoff scenario and my predictions for the relevant Week 17 action. Teams are listed by their standings as of Week 16.
NFC
1. Seattle (12-3; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 1 seed with win or tie or San Francisco loss or tie
Seattle can wrap up their bid for home field advantage at St. Louis (7-8) on Sunday. Despite the Seahawks’ narrow victory against the Rams in October and St. Louis’ four wins versus playoff-eligible teams, Seattle should handle their division foes to clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
2. Carolina (11-4; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 1 seed with and Seattle loss and San Francisco win; clinches No. 2 seed with win or tie OR New Orleans loss or tie
A victory against Atlanta (4-11) would secure a first-round bye and the NFC South crown for Carolina. New Orleans fans are praying for a contrary result, but Carolina will more than likely take care of business and beat Atlanta in the Georgia Dome.
3. Philadelphia (9-6)
Clinches No. 3 seed with win or tie
A week removed from a 54-11 thrashing of Chicago, the Eagles travel to Dallas for a virtual playoff game and the NFC East title.
The Cowboys must lean on their backup quarterback, as Kyle Orton takes over for Tony Romo, who required surgery for a herniated disc in his back. Even if Romo were healthy, I’d place my bets on the Eagles, who have the chance to return to the playoffs after a nightmare 4-12 season in 2012.
4. Chicago (8-7)
Clinches No. 4 seed with win or tie
Bears fan shouldn’t feel too good about their team in the wake of the aforementioned throttling at the hands of Philadelphia and the return of Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for Sunday’s de facto playoff matchup.
The Bears seem to be doomed in this one, as their miserable defense allows almost 400 yards and 30 points per game. Chicago’s third-ranked offense should keep it competitive, but look for Rodgers and the Packers to bounce the Bears from the playoff picture.
5. San Francisco (11-4; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 1 seed with win and losses by Seattle and Carolina; clinches No. 5 seed with win
The 49ers currently hold the first Wild Card spot but can leap into the top spot with a win and improbable losses by Seattle and Carolina. The problem with that equation falls on San Francisco, which travels to take on a high-flying Arizona team fighting for its playoff life.
Though I predict the 49ers will falter against the Cardinals, they are still very capable of making a Super Bowl run.
6. New Orleans (10-5)
Clinches No. 2 seed with win and Carolina loss; clinches No. 5 seed with win and San Francisco loss; clinches No. 6 seed with win
With last week’s last-minute 17-13 loss at Carolina, the Saints relinquished their season-long lead of the NFC South.
The Saints control their destiny against cellar-dweller Tampa Bay (4-11) in the Super Dome, where wins are almost automatic. All signs point to a Wild Card bid for New Orleans, and it will need to fix its road woes in a hurry for a championship run to be possible.
7. Arizona (10-5)
Clinches No. 6 seed with win and New Orleans loss or tie OR tie and New Orleans loss
The only way for the Cardinals to reach the postseason is with a victory versus San Francisco, and I think that’s just what they’ll do. But Arizona needs New Orleans to stumble to sneak into the playoffs, and it looks like the Cardinals, as good as they are, will be watching from home.
8. Dallas (8-7)
Clinches No. 3 seed with win
Everyone knows the old saying about the Cowboys and December, and Romo’s injury only makes things worse. Dallas is 2-11 in Week 17 since 2000, and a matchup with Philadelphia will add another notch in the loss column.
9. Green Bay (7-7-1)
Clinches No. 4 seed with win
The return of Rodgers couldn’t have come at a better time for the Packers.
The former Super Bowl MVP has been practicing for some time now, so he shouldn’t show any signs of rust against the Chicago defense. With its leader back at the helm, Green Bay should be inspired and talented enough to come away from Soldier Field with the victory it needs to claim the fourth seed.
AFC
Denver (12-3; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 1 seed with win or tie OR New England loss or tie
The Broncos have blazed past opponents by scoring 38 points per game, and their status as Super Bowl favorite is justified. Quarterback Peyton Manning has Denver playing at a high level, and a loss at Oakland (4-11) is highly unlikely.
2. New England (11-4; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 1 seed with win and Denver loss; clinches No. 2 seed with win or tie OR Cincinnati loss or tie and Indianapolis loss or tie
The Patriots have a heads-up win against Denver, but they still trail the Broncos in seeding. The AFC West champs need some help from Oakland to shimmy into the top spot, but first they must defeat Buffalo (6-9) for the tiebreaker to be in effect. Look for the Patriots to win and grab the No. 2 seed.
3. Cincinnati (10-5; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 2 seed with win and New England loss; clinches No. 3 seed with win
Though they’ve suffered some embarrassing losses this season, the Bengals can still secure a first-round bye should New England slip up. Baltimore visits Cincinnati needing a win to aid its playoff chances, but the Bengals will dash their postseason hopes with a decisive victory.
4. Indianapolis (10-5; clinched playoff berth)
Clinches No. 2 seed with win and New England loss and Cincinnati loss or tie; clinches No. 3 seed with win an Cincinnati loss or tie
The Colts have one of the easier games Sunday, as they should easily dispose of Jacksonville (4-11). With the Jaguars out of the way, Indianapolis would need those above them to fall to jump to the No. 2 seed. But that scenario is unlikely, and the Colts will take either the third or fourth seed as champions of the worst division in football.
5. Kansas City (11-4; clinched No. 5 seed)
As the only team certain of its playoff seeding, the Chiefs don’t have much to play for when they travel to San Diego. Coach Andy Reid said he planned to mix and match starters and backups against the Chargers, who need a win to stay in contention for the postseason. I predict a Kansas City loss, sending it into the playoffs on a 2-5 skid.
6. Miami (8-7)
Clinches No. 6 seed with win and Baltimore loss or tie OR win and San Diego win OR tie and Baltimore loss and San Diego loss or tie OR tie and Baltimore tie and San Diego tie
The Dolphins are vying with three other squads for the final Wild Card slot, which is the only spot up for grabs in the AFC. Miami requires the least amount of help to get in, but it still needs to beat the New York Jets (7-8) to stay alive. The Dolphins won 23-3 in their showdown with the Jets four weeks ago, and I expect a similar result to lift Miami into the postseason.
7. Baltimore (8-7)
Clinches No. 6 seed with win and San Diego loss or tie OR win and Miami loss or tie OR tie and Miami loss and San Diego loss or tie OR tie and Miami tie and San Diego loss OR Miami loss and San Diego loss and Pittsburgh loss or tie
The Ravens are the only team that can lose and still clinch the Wild Card, but they shouldn’t count on the other losses necessary for that happen.
Winning against Cincinnati would greatly improve Baltimore’s chances, but that’s not something I see happening. In the end, the Ravens will be watching from home rather than defending last year’s Super Bowl title.
8. San Diego (7-8)
Clinches No. 6 seed with win and Miami loss or tie and Baltimore loss or tie OR tie and Miami loss and Baltimore loss
The Chargers should satisfy the first part of their playoff berth scenario with a victory against a Kansas City team that will probably sit its starters, but their bid will be foiled by Miami. I’d like to see San Diego sneak into the Wild Card round, because I believe it could make a deeper run than the other three teams competing for the spot.
9. Pittsburgh (7-8)
Clinches No. 6 seed with win and Miami loss and Baltimore loss and San Diego loss
With Cleveland (4-11) paying a visit to Heinz Field on Sunday, the Steelers have a gravy matchup to close the regular season. Pittsburgh is the long shot here, as the three clubs above it need to lose for it to earn a playoff berth. Pulling to 8-8 would be a great consolation prize for a team that started 0-4, but the Steelers need too much help to make it to the playoffs.
Projected playoff seeding
AFC                                              NFC
No. 1 – Denver                             No. 1 – Seattle
No. 2 – New England                    No. 2 – Carolina
No. 3 – Cincinnati                         No. 3 – Philadelphia
No. 4 – Indianapolis                      No. 4 – Green Bay
No. 5 – Kansas City                      No. 5 – San Francisco
No. 6 – Miami                               No. 6 – New Orleans
This is the first entry in an NFL Playoff Blog produced by The Daily Reveille sports staff.