When LSU faces the No. 7 University of Mississippi on Saturday, it will be LSU’s second bout with a top 10 opponent in three weeks. The last one was one that the Tigers would like to forget.
Against then-No.8 Tennessee, LSU was thoroughly outclassed on both sides of the ball, but also on the sidelines, with Volunteers head coach Josh Huepel clearly winning the chess match against Brian Kelly.
Since then, LSU had its best offensive game of the season against Florida and now plays host to the formidable Rebels. Despite the fact that LSU is unranked playing against one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in FBS, the Tigers are somehow favored to win by Vegas’s betting lines.
There’s plenty of potential for an upset here, but there’s also the possibility of a meltdown similar to the one Tiger fans saw two weeks ago in Death Valley.
LSU will lose if…
Brian Kelly loses the coaching battle once again.
Against Tennessee, Kelly was generally outcoached, as the Volunteers played a better game on both sides of the ball. However, he also had a few noteworthy decisions in the first half that essentially put the game out of reach.
On LSU’s second drive, he went for a fourth and four instead of kicking a field goal that would have made the score 10-3. As with almost all fourth down decisions, it’s easy to make a judgment after the fact. You can see what Kelly was thinking, though. Against a team with an offense like Tennessee’s, you can’t settle for field goals because the Volunteers will assuredly get touchdowns.
In actuality, the Tiger defense did a fine job against the Volunteers in the first quarter. Tennessee was handed a short field twice because of special teams’ errors, but LSU executed an impressive three and out on one of those drives, yielding only a field goal. Through three Volunteer drives, the LSU defense made Tennessee settle for field goals inside the Tigers’ 25-yard line twice.
Kelly failed to recognize the flow of the game up to that point and didn’t show faith in his defense. You can’t fault his aggressiveness, and if the conversion had been made, it would’ve been huge for LSU. Still, even just establishing some team confidence for having put points on the board could’ve helped the Tigers. Instead, Tennessee’s fourth down stop established momentum for the Volunteers.
Kelly also chose to go for a fourth and 10 with 23 seconds left in the first half, a decision that was especially egregious. The series up to that point had seen Jaray Jenkins drop a long pass that hit his hands, which also could have been big for LSU, setting up a score before half. With his team near midfield, Kelly went for it despite there being a good bit of time left in the half. Tennessee’s kicker had also barely missed a 50-yard field goal that he’d had plenty of leg for just minutes earlier. LSU failed to convert, and Tennessee quickly moved down the field and predictably drained a field goal to close the half.
These missed opportunities in the first half made it impossible to come back, and Tennessee rolled from there. Against great teams like Tennessee and Ole Miss, Kelly’s decisions have to be sound.
LSU will win if…
The defense can get back to forcing turnovers.
LSU’s defense has forced 12 turnovers this year but hasn’t forced any in its last two games against Tennessee and Florida.
Opportunistic turnovers have been part of LSU’s defensive identity all year, but their last two games have lacked that, and those two games have unsurprisingly been the defense’s two worst.
Turnovers were huge for LSU in its first three games against Power Five opponents. A fumble forced on a punt return gave LSU a chance to tie the game against Florida State with a last-second drive, though we know how that ended. Another forced punt return fumble turned the tide in the Tigers’ favor in the game against Mississippi State, setting up a touchdown that would permanently give LSU the lead. Finally, turnovers were key for LSU when it faced Auburn, with a fumble return touchdown kickstarting a comeback and an interception sealing the game.
The Tigers have to get back to that if they want to beat Ole Miss, who have 10 turnovers this season and at least one in every game it has played.
LSU will lose if…
The special teams continue to give opponents easy opportunities.
LSU’s special teams has been so poor this season that ESPN had a camera trained on special teams coordinator Brian Polian against Florida, waiting for the unit to make a mistake (and it did).
The Tiger return game has been a disaster to this point. The team has fumbled the ball on a return four times this season, with Malik Nabers and Jack Bech each having coughed it up twice. LSU’s returners haven’t been particularly effective when the ball stays in their hands, either. The Tigers rank 98th in yards per kick return and 121st in yards per punt return.
The return coverage also hasn’t been good for LSU. The Tigers are 106th in yards allowed per kick return and 123rd in yards allowed per punt return.
That kind of yardage adds up over a game, and field position can easily be the difference between a win and a loss. LSU’s special teams doesn’t need to turn into the nation’s best unit overnight, but it does need to be competent and avoid back-breaking errors if it wants to beat Ole Miss. What are usually the most routine plays on a football field have been nerve-wracking for LSU fans this season.
LSU will win if…
Jayden Daniels and the offense can keep pace with the Ole Miss offense.
This is simple. Ole Miss is a team that’s going to put up a lot of points. LSU shouldn’t expect to shut them down on defense. The goal should be to slow them down enough for the Tiger offense to have a chance of keeping even. For that to happen, Daniels needs to be on his A-game.
Daniels was clearly in a groove against Florida, as he racked up 349 yards and three touchdowns through the air, adding three more touchdowns on the ground. He was comfortable in the pocket and took some deep shots that paid off, trusting his talented receivers. His rushing ability continued to be a weapon and a dimension that defenses have to account for, especially in the red zone.
In addition, Daniels found his weapons. Star receiver Kayshon Boutte had his first 100-yard game of the season, and Malik Nabers had a healthy six targets, coming up with four receptions. LSU’s rushing game was efficient, as well, with Josh Williams and John Emery combining for 136 yards on 6.2 yards per carry.
If LSU’s offense stays on schedule and can match Ole Miss punch for punch, it would put them in a great position to win the game.
LSU will lose if…
The offensive line can’t protect the quarterback.
LSU’s offensive line has had its struggles this year, juggling different lineups after not having much continuity to begin with. Still, it has generally improved over time, which is a good sign for a unit that has two true freshmen starting at the tackle spots.
Until last week at Florida, LSU had allowed at least three sacks in each of its matchups against Power Five teams. That blame can’t be placed entirely on the line, as Daniels has had moments where he’s been skittish in the pocket, but LSU was still allowing hits on its quarterback.
Against the Gators, the offensive line allowed only one sack. That trend needs to continue against Ole Miss, who is tied for second in the SEC in sacks, with 13 different players recording at least one for a total of 19. When the Rebels get to the quarterback, they make it count. They’ve made quarterbacks fumble six times this year.
LSU will win if…
The defense can make tackles in space on the excellent Ole Miss running backs.
Ole Miss’s greatest strength as an offense is its running game, having put up 1900 yards (third in FBS) and 24 touchdowns (first in FBS) thanks to its two-headed monster of a backfield. Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins each have over 600 yards and average around six yards a carry.
The Rebels run almost twice as much as they pass, which means LSU will need to be disciplined in stopping the run. The last two weeks, LSU has struggled in that regard, allowing Tennessee and Florida to run for 263 and 210, respectively.
LSU will seek to mitigate the damage Ole Miss’s run game does with solid tackling and hopefully put the Rebel offense behind schedule. Even if the Tigers do get Ole Miss into third-and-long scenarios, the Rebels have been efficient in converting such situations, having gotten a first down on 53.3% of third downs with seven or more yards to go in their last five games. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is no slouch. There is no foolproof way to attack this Ole Miss offense, but the lesser of two evils is asking Dart to throw. It’s always good to get a team into tough third downs, and that’s why LSU has to contain Ole Miss’s rushing game.
The front seven, which was the strength of the LSU defense to open the season, has had a string of bad games. Ole Miss may present its toughest test yet, but if LSU misses tackles and isn’t able to force at least a handful of stuffs, the Rebels will run all over them like they did against Auburn last week to the tune of 448 yards on the ground.
