Four of the nation’s best teams qualify for the College Football Playoff every year. With such a small window of opportunity, most qualifying teams are undefeated, and those who aren’t have difficult schedules to back up their losses.
Following LSU’s opening loss to Florida State, its last shot of making the playoffs could rely on its strength of schedule, something that hasn’t been a problem in the past. Being in the SEC, arguably the most competitive conference in the country, LSU has always played its fair share of ranked opponents.
This year, the story is different. The SEC is in a slump, and LSU’s schedule looks unusually weak. It only plays four currently ranked opponents, compared to the seven ranked opponents the Tigers faced in 2021.
Of those four, two are currently ranked higher than 19. For LSU, the CFP already seems to be out of reach.
The Tigers will regroup and recover following the loss to FSU. They’ll earn their confidence back in what should be a convincing win against Grambling. They’ll most likely continue their success for a couple games, traveling to an underwhelming Mississippi State and playing Arkansas at home.
The Tigers travel to Oxford and take on the No. 20 Rebels the following week, playing their first ranked opponent since FSU. Ole Miss looks deadly, and led by returning quarterback Jaxson Dart, it has a strong chance of finishing off LSU’s playoff hopes early.
Ole Miss and LSU have always had an unspoken rivalry, especially between fans. Although the Rebels are only ranked No. 20, their team looks much stronger. This game will be a true test to determine LSU’s success this season.
However, another series of weaker opponents follow Ole Miss. The Tigers travel to Missouri then take on Auburn and Army at home, all of whom are unranked. Although they should all be wins for the Tigers, they won’t help their chances of making the playoffs.
Wins are important for any team to make their case for the CFP but wins against unranked opponents don’t improve the odds. Showing their ability to defeat ranked opponents allows for teams to climb the ladder towards the top four.
The following week is the only game where LSU can regain an argument for the CFP. LSU’s only hope of qualifying for the playoffs relies on their ability to win the SEC Championship.
Since LSU’s schedule is so weak, it needs to play as many ranked opponents as possible, so playing in the SEC Championship would help.
Going to the SEC Championship is easier said than done. To get there, LSU must first win the SEC West, which usually means beating Alabama.
Currently ranked No. 3 in the country, Alabama vividly remembers its heartbreaking loss to LSU last year.
Revenge is fresh on the minds of the Crimson Tide, and the matchup in Tuscaloosa on November 4 is circled on its calendar. Alabama’s matchup with LSU is more than winning the SEC West. For the Tide, it’s an act of revenge.
LSU’s chances of repeating an upset against Alabama are slim, especially in Tuscaloosa. That could be its one shot to make the playoffs, and it seems like a Hail Mary.
If the Tigers do defy the odds and beat Alabama, their playoff hopes live on. They’ll finish off their schedule with unranked Florida, Georgia State, and No. 23 Texas A&M, most likely winning all those games. Chances are they’ll finish the season in the SEC Championship against No. 1 Georgia.
Like Alabama, Georgia isn’t the easiest of opponents. Last year the Bulldogs showed their dominance in a blowout SEC Championship game against the Tigers. If LSU ends up in the same spot, chances are it’ll happen it again.
For LSU, its chances rely on the ability to be perfect for the rest of the season.
Strength of schedule is what’s important, and as of now the SEC isn’t filled with strong opponents like it usually is. Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas and Florida, all teams with prestigious football histories, are all in rebuilding stages.
When the end of the season comes and the final rankings are being made, the teams you beat and the teams you lose to matter. In the past, teams like UCF have gone undefeated and still didn’t make the playoffs, strictly due to their weak schedules.
Teams with one loss also make the playoffs, especially if they lose to a strong ranked opponent. Securing easy wins against unranked opponents doesn’t translate to the real strength of a football team. Proving your strength requires evidence of power against respected opponents, and only a few are on LSU’s schedule this year.
LSU must go undefeated or win the SEC, and one of those options is already impossible. Even though its loss was to a top 10 opponent, opening the season at 0-1 is not how LSU gets to the National Championship.
With only three ranked opponents left, hope for the playoffs is quickly diminishing. It’s win or go home for the rest of the season, and with No. 3 Alabama standing in their way, the Tigers have their work cut out for them.
