With Fidel Castro no longer in office, all eyes are on Cuba, with some speculating the power shift could reopen a lucrative window in Louisiana. Cuba was the Port of New Orleans’ biggest trading partner before Castro became president in 1959. Though a handful of products still flow between the countries, trade remains limited because of a U.S. trade embargo in place since the 1960s. Louisiana exported $30 billion in goods this past year according to the World Trade Center of New Orleans. About $173 million of those exports went to Cuba, ranking the island No. 45 among more than 200 countries with which Louisiana did business in 2007. But this hasn’t stopped New Orleans from realizing the potential to renew profitable ties with the island. Some are optimistic that Fidel’s decision to step down could trigger a change in U.S.-Cuban trade policy and create more jobs in the Louisiana trading industries located along the Mississippi River. “I am hopeful for the first time in many years,” said George Fowler, general counsel and vice president of the Cuban American National Foundation, the largest Cuban exile group in the world. Fowler, who is a New Orleans lawyer and alumnus, fled Cuba with his family when he was 9 years old. Fowler sees the potential for a trading market, but he said he is not blind to the political reality of the post-Fidel government. He said there will be no changes in the communist bureaucracy as long as Castro is alive. But Fowler said he is hopeful because Fidel’s brother, Raul Castro, has shown an interest in improving U.S.-Cuban relations. Fowler said Raul Castro understands trade will not increase with the U.S. unless there is a relaxation of laws. Once Fidel Castro dies, Fowler said he is confident Raul Castro will initiate deep changes to spur the Cuban economy. “Raul [Castro] has said that he would engage in trade negotiations with the U.S. in the hopes of improving the economy,” Fowler said. “He has to improve the economy, or he will be out quickly.” But having an open-trade relationship with Cuba is a two-way street. Fowler said U.S. policy is directly related to how Cuban leadership treats its people. “If Raul [Castro] takes some steps, we will take some steps,” Fowler said. Fowler foresees the U.S. supporting a change in U.S.-Cuban policy and restoring relations within the next couple of years. If his predictions are accurate, Fowler said the trading potential for U.S. southern ports would be tremendous, especially in New Orleans and Miami. Eugene Schreiber, managing director of the World Trade Center of New Orleans, said it is not easy predicting the future for a non-democratic place that has been under the rule of one person for more than 50 years. “There is a lot of uncertainty,” Schreiber said. “It’s not an economic decision of where Cuba will go; it’s a political decision.” Schreiber said he is not as hopeful about the future of Raul Castro’s reign in Cuba, even if Fidel Castro dies. “I don’t see any immediate effects as long as his brother is in power,” Schreiber said. Schreiber said once the Castro family is no longer in power and if Cuba adopts a democratic political system, there is the potential for a healthy trading relationship with the U.S. He said if the U.S. eases its policy to allow open trade, business at the Port of Baton Rouge and the Port of New Orleans would boost dramatically. He said the opportunity for the ports would be outstanding. “We would no doubt be very competitive on a transportation level to Cuba if and when Cuba opens up,” Schreiber said. “It would be one of the best ways for companies throughout the Midwest to get their products to Cuba. And [Cuba] could send their products by barge to ports in the lower Mississippi.” Richard White, professor in the E.J. Ourso College of Business’ Public Administration Institute, said it will be interesting to see how the U.S. presidential election in November affects U.S.-Cuban policy. White, a Cuban-American relations expert, said he envisions increased trade policy relaxation with a new U.S. president. “But any relaxation over economic controls in Cuba that would allow American industry into Cuba, say a McDonald’s or a Wal-Mart, would just cause a domino effect,” White said. “Their communist economy would collapse over night if we allowed it to.” White said Cuba has been stuck in a time warp for the past 50 years. But he said there would be much on the table for Louisiana if Cuba opens itself to capitalism. “I think it will be a fascinating time for American-Cuban relations for the next 10 years,” White said. White served 24 years in the U.S. Coast Guard, spending much of his time in the Caribbean as a vessel commander dealing with the Cuban government and refugees. White also worked for the CIA and State Department. He said Cuba holds a special place in his heart because of his operational involvement. “I hope the Cuban people come out better with this,” White said. “I hope they are not the ones caught in the middle and suffer, but that has unfortunately been the case for the last five decades.” White echoed the sentiments of Fowler and Schreiber. He said Fidel Castro will continue to dominate the political, cultural and economic scene in Cuba until he dies. Chris Bonura, spokesman for the Port of New Orleans, said the port is ready to react if the United States lifts the embargo. But he said New Orleans will not be the only major port city prepared to do business. He said the Port of Baton Rouge and Miami’s ports will also be in on the action. “If at some point the political landscape changes, then we are ready to do business,” Bonura said. Beside cargo prospects, Bonura said he sees a bright future for Cuba as a major cruise and tourist port. Fowler also said Cuba will steal the tourist trade from other Caribbean islands. He said most Cuban Americans would like to open businesses in Cuba if U.S. relations improve. And Fowler is optimistic about the day he will be able to open an office for his law firm in Cuba.
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