The upcoming generation of college graduates may have a rude awakening when they enter the job market.
Features of the labor market that our parents took for granted such as benefits, job security and a guaranteed promotion, are most likely a thing of the past.
Some researchers – most notably Peter Capelli in his 1999 book “The New Deal at Work: Managing the Market Driven Workforce” – even imply these features themselves were an anomaly.
Like most kids that grew up in America during the ’80s, I consider the accomplishments of my parents’ generation as my model for success. I planned on finding a job and sticking with it until I moved up the ladder – going from rags to riches in a story that could happen in America.
I thought that was the way things worked.
My parents, like most students enrolled in the University, were baby boomers – arguably the most successful generation of Americans the world has seen.
They were a generation born to greatness and success and achieved both proficiently.
How could they not succeed? They were born into an incredible economic boom – likely the greatest this nation will ever see.
Their economic success has been both an incredible blessing and an unfortunate curse for all subsequent generations.
The prosperity that came out of the post World War II boom brought a number of improvements to the job market. The labor market itself became internalized, and many companies began building their future leaders from the ground up.
Jobs were stable, raises were guaranteed and internal job ladders meant loyal workers were nearly guaranteed a higher-ranked position if they simply stuck with it.
Over time, those features of the market became the norm but lasted only for a few decades.
The ’80s and ’90s brought about a change in the labor market structure that was more a return to an older system than a new labor revolution.
High costs of competition forced many employers to transition to an external labor market that relies on employees that are not home-grown but rather ready to go right out of the box.
The guarantees of the post World War II boom had given way to a new system with roots in US economic history.
Labor market researchers and theorists have slowly and surely broken down the myth that the labor market has always functioned as it did during the boom.
In fact, many researchers – Capelli included – say today’s job market isn’t that different from the market of 100 years ago, when outsourcing was commonplace and employers didn’t feel loyalty was all that important.
Turnover rates were incredibly high in those days – some historians even estimate factory turnover rates as high as 100 percent.
History does repeat itself but with a little variation.
The service industry has replaced the manufacturing and agricultural sectors as the largest employer of Americans. But today, there is no guarantee of job security and benefits and large-scale employers don’t value employee loyalty much either – just like in the old days.
My generation and the two that precede it don’t remember the old days. All we know is the end result of the post World War II boom that projected America into its current status as a world economic superpower.
That’s not to say that all labor market areas function in this exact fashion. Some small, independent businesses still value loyalty and promise workers steady promotion through their ranks, but those companies comprise a small number of the jobs available.
Those jobs are more a dream than a reality.
Census figures indicate college graduation rates are the highest they’ve ever been, and it’s doubtful every new entry into the labor market will be able to find a job at a small company willing to honor the old system’s promises.
The boomers curse may be a set of employment expectations that cannot be filled.
It’s become cliché for Generation X – and their successor, the Millennial generation – to blame their parents for many of the hardships they endure. But there is little doubt the path carved by the boomers will continue to influence the lives of an entire nation.
Recognition of influences does not, however, justify temper tantrums.
The newly-minted workforce will have to deal with challenges their parents never intended for them to encounter and a frustrating search for gainful employment.
That doesn’t mean the future is bleak. The integration of the Internet and other technologies into the labor market may mean the difference between a repeat of history and a whole new job market.
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Contact Skylar Gremillion at [email protected]