Adorned in a navy blue polo and dark khakis, Jonathan Blaes relaxes in his chair. He’s surrounded by stacks of paper, family photos and various weather maps, but the latest track of Tropical Storm Hanna covers his computer screen.

Blaes is the science officer for the Raleigh office of the National Weather Service, located in Research Building III on Centennial Campus. Holding 16 to 17 meteorologists, a fourth of whom are N.C. State graduates, the office moved from its location at the airport to Centennial campus about 15 years ago. It is this office, which is one of 120 across the country, that generates the severe storm information, watches and warnings seen on TV screens, including severe weather caused by hurricanes.

More specifically, what Blaes is looking at is “a bunch of storms that organize themselves,” said Sethu Raman, former state climatologist and marine, earth and atmospheric sciences professor. “It derives its energy from warm ocean waters and spins in a counter-clockwise motion.”

The most damaging part of the storm, Raman said, is the eye wall. The eye itself is located in the center of the storm where the wind speed is low. The eye wall, however, can produce winds over 155 miles per hour and some intense rainfall.

Ryan Boyles, the current state climatologist and director of the State Climate office located on Centennial Campus, said there has been a shift in hurricane activity since 1995.

“There was not a lot of activity in the previous 25 years,” Boyles said, adding that the increase in activity is due to a shift in ocean circulation and warmer temperatures. “Warmer water means more hurricanes.”

The unpredictability of these storms makes them difficult to track. A hurricane’s path becomes very uncertain after a three- to five-day forecast, making early landfall predictions complicated. Boyles said the office can expect at least one hurricane a year to influence North Carolina weather, and that there is a 33 percent chance of a direct hit any given year.

But Blaes, Raman and Boyles agree that the National Hurricane Center houses the experts on tropical cyclonic storms. “All hurricane information comes from the National Hurricane Center in Florida,” Blaes said, “but we work closely with them and add details on a local level.”

These details include where the most rain is forecasted to fall and where the highest wind speeds will be. Researchers on Centennial Campus, Blaes said, helps work out these challenges. For example, severe storms like hurricanes can also produce other brutal systems such as tornadoes.

In an effort to understand what conditions cause tornadoes, and how to better predict their occurrence, the National Weather Service works with University researchers faculty to study these tornadoes to understand what conditions cause them.

“We work with NCSU on multiple projects at many different levels that are beneficial to both sides,” Blaes said.

Ashley Frazier sees firsthand how Centennial Campus benefits from having a National Weather Service office on site. Frazier, a 2005 graduate, works as an environmental meteorologist in the State Climate office located one floor below the National Weather Service.

Originally located at UNC-Chapel Hill, the State Climate office moved to NCSU under state climatologist and marine, earth and atmospheric sciences professor Jerry Davis in 1980. Raman took over the position in 1996. Although their work doesn’t necessarily focus on forecasting, Frazier said, they do work with data from the local climate.

“We concentrate on climate information archiving, product development for surrounding areas and educational outreach,” Frazier said.

The SCO employs three graduate students, about 10 undergraduate students and two newly graduated students. John McGuire, a current employee and graduate student, is researching a project that uses computer models to forecast disease growth in peanuts.

His design calculates the risks and shows them to farmers. With this data, the farmers know what times they should or should not spray their crops, which saves them money and keeps the crops protected. Another graduate student, Heather Dinon, is working on how El Nino and La Nina affect crops in North Carolina.

Although the SCO does not work specifically with hurricane forecasting, their work on the local climate has a great effect on North Carolina.

As far as Tropical Storm Hanna goes, “it keeps moving to the northeast,” Blaes said. “For all we know, it could be a nothing but a breeze.”