Primary season – a time generally marked by inevitability and modest public attention – has plunged into the histrionics which have captured the public’s interest as thoroughly as anything else in primetime. I hoped the Nevada Caucus on Jan. 19 would have provided some clarity about the Democratic primary. Instead, we saw a desperate, calculating, poll-driven Clinton campaign focus on averting disaster by alienating blacks to gain a more “useful” base of Latin American supporters. We saw 60,000 union members fail to break the entrenched Clinton establishment. Despite the Nevada chapter of the Culinary Workers Union’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama, many members of the union instead supported Sen. Hillary Clinton. Ironic, given her supporters’ attempts to shut down caucus sites in casinos on the Las Vegas Strip, disenfranchising potential Obama-supporting union members who worked during the caucus hours. She nearly shut down the very county that sealed the win. Despite the largest union in the state endorsing Obama, many union members supported Clinton anyway. Does this mean union endorsements are becoming less influential for candidates? I don’t think so. Clinton had more than twice the number of union endorsements in Nevada than either Obama or former Sen. John Edwards. A racial divide may have played a larger role in shaping the Latin American vote since the culinary union has a large Latin American membership. Clinton won the Latin American vote by about a three to one margin. In contrast, Obama won nearly 80 percent of the black votes in the caucus. The mistrust and animosity between blacks and Latin Americans is no secret in politics. The Clinton camp catalyzed this divide by making Obama’s race a central issue. This was less racist than it was poll-driven, and it worked in Nevada. It may also help her in California – a large Feb. 5 voting state with a similarly large Latin American voting base. So it too will help Obama in South Carolina where nearly 50 percent of the votes are predicted to come from the black community. Where does this leave the state of the race going into Feb. 5? Your guess is as good as mine. Anyone who watched this past Monday’s debate knows that Edwards is still in the race with no apparent intention of dropping out. I am not the first to believe that Edwards’ presence in the race benefits Obama. Chris Bowers of openleft.com notes that Edwards helps Obama – especially in South Carolina where Edwards draws little black support but competes with Clinton for white Southern votes. Perhaps a delegate race and brokered convention is in the future for the Democratic Party. The Republican race for the nomination is even less clear. I am not a conservative, nor am I pretentious enough to believe I know what a conservative would look for in a candidate. I do, however, have some observations gathered from the primaries and caucuses so far. It is a mistake for many “professional” analysts from every major media outlet to anoint Sen. John McCain the frontrunner because of his victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary. Most of these professionals have been wrong every step of the way, so I hardly feel crazy for correcting them. Furthermore, McCain is not the favorite of the conservative establishment looking for the next Ronald Reagan. Former Gov. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, looks like the real frontrunner. Yes, he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire after spending oodles of money and time, but he leads McCain big in delegate count; 66 to McCain’s 38 delegates. As long as there is a spoiler like former Gov. Mike Huckabee drawing delegates from McCain in Southern states, Romney’s plan to win delegates, not states, is viable. Moreover, recent economic worries of recession also help Romney since he can laud his credentials as a successful business man. Some conservatives see Romney as Clinton’s doppelganger. Conservative columnist David Brooks regards Romney as a “weak general election candidate.” Imagine a general election with Clinton and Romney – two highly divisive and unelectable candidates. Who wins? As for the others, former mayor Rudy Giuliani’s strategy is disaster. A recent Rasmussen poll has the Florida primary in a four-way deadlock – surely a disappointment for Giuliani who hoped a strong Florida performance would propel him into the Feb. 5 states. The de facto Limbaugh nominee Fred Thompson was as tardy in his exit as he was entering the race – sorry “dittoheads.” Huckabee lost an essential battle in South Carolina as well. According to CNN, he led McCain in both evangelical voters and those who consider themselves conservative, but still could not gain victory. As for Ron Paul – keep dreaming folks.
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