Well… last week was… something! A joyous triumph for Georgia finally getting a big game win against one of the titans in Clemson, Tulane (!!) giving Oklahoma the ride of their life, and overtime in Tallahassee after McKenzie Milton marched onto the field, like they were filming a movie, and nearly brought Florida State back in their loss to Notre Dame were just few of the great highlights.
And then there was LSU. And ULL. And Miami. And Indiana. Sheesh.
Previous Week: 2-3
UCF -6.0 vs. Boise State (L)
Man, UCF was so close. Dillon Gabriel got his clock rung trying to go for two at the end on Thursday night to extend their lead, and that was it for my hopes of an epic Golden Knight cover after being down 21-0.
Alabama -19.5 vs. Miami (W)
Pick Alabama. Profit. Rinse. Repeat.
Iowa vs. Indiana +3.0 (L)
I’d rather if we didn’t. Yeesh!
Texas vs. ULL +8.0 (L)
The Longhorns held their own. ULL hung in there for a bit, but ultimately, the more talented team prevailed. Texas has another sneaky good game this weekend in Fayetteville against Arkansas. I’m still a big believer in the Cajuns going forward.
Ole Miss -10.0 vs. Louisville (W)
No Lane Kiffin, no problem. The Rebel offense lived up to the preseason billing, dropping 43 on the Cardinals. Matt Corral awareness campaign is right on schedule!
Alas, the show goes on. Week 2 could end up being as electric or more than week 1, with some phenomenal matchups on the slate. Let’s get to it!
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM of 09/10
Notre Dame vs Toledo, Saturday
09/11, 1:30 PM CT, Peacock
The Pick: Toledo +17.0
Hear me out.
This is South Bend’s first full capacity crowd since November 2019. A Notre Dame team with some momentum after narrowly surviving the amazing comeback from Florida State on Sunday. Up against Toledo? It should be an easy Irish cover.
Except Toledo is not your normal MAC team. This is a veteran team; returning 21 starters, that looks to be a favorite to win the MAC. Carter Bradley, son of Las Vegas Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, took over at QB for the Rockets after former starter Eli Peters was forced to retire. This offense can and will score on a Notre Dame defense, while not void of talent, they looked vulnerable against Florida State. Notre Dame will pull out the victory, but not without some sweating from the Irish faithful.
Score: Notre Dame 34, Toledo 20
Colorado vs. Texas A&M, Saturday
09/11, 2:30 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: Texas A&M -17.0
Last week, I didn’t get the chance to ooze over how much I like Texas A&M’s team this year, so I’ll take this opportunity to do so.
To me, they are the only SEC West team with a real chance to beat Alabama and make the run to Atlanta. The talent Jimbo Fisher has recruited is immense. Running back Isaiah Spiller is a top-3 back in the conference, and tight end Jalen Wydermeyer and defensive end DeMarvin Leal are impact players on each side of the ball. There were question marks about who could fill in for Kellen Mond behind center, but Haynes King has gotten the call for now and looks the part of an SEC quarterback for now. The upside for this team is higher than the last two years for the Aggies in my eyes.
They’ll get a Power 5 check this weekend by traveling to Boulder to play Colorado, but I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t roll over them.
Score: Texas A&M 42, Colorado 17
Iowa State vs. Iowa, Saturday
09/11, 3:30 PM CT, ABC
The Pick: Iowa +4.5
Remember last week, when I said Iowa’s defense may take a few weeks to return to its top of the conference status of last year?
Sheesh. Iowa held Indiana, one of the more potent offenses in the Big 10, to just 233 total yards of offense. The Hoosiers’ running game finished with 2.5 YPC and were completely dominated by Iowa’s macho front seven. For Iowa State to allow star quarterback Brock Purdy some space to make throws, the Cyclones are going to have to establish a run against that same Hawkeye defense from a week ago. It’ll be a rocking atmosphere in Ames for this heated interconference rivalry game, but I like Iowa’s defense to continue its upward ascent.
Score: Iowa 23, Iowa State 16
Kentucky vs. Missouri, Saturday
09/11, 6:30 PM CT, SECN
The Pick: Kentucky -5.0
Another favorite SEC team of mine this year is Kentucky. Mark Stoops has developed an identity for his team — they are going to push you around. The offensive line, now with the addition of former LSU left tackle Dare Rosenthal, is physical and imposing. Will Levis looked solid under center, and the Wildcats have a bon-a-fide star in Chris Rodriguez at running back. While the opener was against ULM, the Kentucky defense was absolutely stifling, allowing just 87 yards of offense. By the end of the season, I think Kentucky will be looking up only to see Georgia in front of them in the SEC East.
Missouri is no scrub. Eli Drinkwitz is doing a great job of turning the program around, and he has a veteran quarterback in Connor Bazelak to make the big decisions, but with the Lexington crowd and the overall strength of Kentucky, I like the Wildcats to gain a big advantage in the race to catch Georgia.
Score: Kentucky 30, Missouri 20
USC vs. Stanford, Saturday 09/11,
9:30 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: USC -17.0
So LSU fans were made painfully aware of how good UCLA is, but what about the other Pac-12 team of Los Angeles?
Well, USC is another favorite to win the conference. It’s been rough sledding for Clay Helton since his iconic Rose Bowl win over Penn State in 2016, especially for a program as historic and affluent as USC. The last three seasons, the Trojans have gone 18-13 with some talented players coming through like NFL wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Amon-Ra St. Brown, as well as now Georgia quarterback JT Daniels.
I feel good about USC this year, and it’s in large part to another good Trojan offense led by Kedon Slovis at QB. Helton has recruited quarterbacks well (Sam Darnold, Daniels, Slovis), but this is the first USC that is returning a starting signal caller without an injury or change in personnel since Darnold in 2016 and 2017. Slovis is one of the better prospects for this year’s draft, and his poise and arm talent should be USC’s best hope for a Pac-12 title. Add on talented receiver Drake London and Texas transfer running back Keontay Ingram, and you have one of the best trios on the west coast.
Stanford is bad. Like really bad. They were beat pretty handily by Kansas State last week, 24-7. This used to be one of the best games of the year not that long ago, with the names of Andrew Luck and Kevin Hogan facing off against Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley, but Stanford has struggled even worse than USC. This one could get ugly.
