The Republican Party may be in trouble.
In addition to disapproval of federal Hurricane Katrina relief efforts, the former house majority leader faces the possibility of jailtime, key members of the White House staff are under investigation and the president is having trouble justifying the war in Iraq.
But no matter how frustrated Louisianans are with the federal response to Katrina amid other political controversies, the Republican Party may be able to hold onto the state’s nine electoral votes in the next presidential election. Because Katrina drove thousands of evacuees out of Louisiana, the Democratic Party may have lost its base in the state.
“It’s possible the electoral vote may change,” said Robert Hogan, political science associate professor. “There are a lot of people upset about the federal response after the hurricane, but there are a lot of people upset about the state’s response, too.”
Hogan was referring to Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s response in particular that has come under national fire again recently because Time Magazine named her as one of the three worst governors in the country.
Blanco’s only statement about her bottom-tier ranking came on the floor of the state Senate when she told nay-sayers to “watch my results.”
Though the GOP is scrambling to maintain its hold on Congress amid controversy, the party may have an easier time in Louisiana because the state’s demographics have changed drastically after Katrina drove thousands of Louisiana’s residents out of the state.
Because the majority of the evacuees who left Louisiana were minorities who historically vote Democratically, the Republican base that remains may be able to maintain its hold on the state’s electoral votes.
“It’s my gut reaction that the state became Republican after Katrina,” said Kirby Goidel, mass communication and political science professor. “We really don’t know what the population is going to look like in two years, but the popular convention is that we’re going to lose a lot of the minority population who tended to vote Democrat.”
Goidel said the direction the state will swing in the 2008 presidential election depends on “who loses the Katrina blame game.”
“It all depends on if the people blame the federal government for their response or if they blame the state government,” he said.
Bush has been blasted by the media for the federal response following Katrina, and criticism of Bush has increased recently because of an investigation of key members of his and Vice President Dick Cheney’s cabinets.
Bush’s trusted political adviser Karl Rove and Cheney’s former Chief of Staff Lewis “Scooter” Libby are under investigation for allegedly leaking the name of Valerie Plame, a CIA operative, to news reporters.
Libby was indicted Oct. 28 on charges of obstruction of justice, perjury and making false statements during the investigation.
In the face of the Plame investigation, Bush’s poll numbers have also suffered because public opinion continues to fall about the war in Iraq.
The question about U.S. involvement in Iraq has become increasingly heated as the number of American casualties passed the symbolic 2000 mark on Oct. 26.
“There is only a limited ability for a party to impact its image outside of good news happening, such as economic growth,” Goidel said. “They need to do something that provides a sense of progress in Iraq or of economic growth.”
Though Hogan said he thinks the party has a hard road ahead of it, members of the Republican National Committee remain optimistic about the future.
RNC spokesman Danny Diaz told The Daily Reveille in a phone interview from Washington that the party intends to remain focused on the issues and not the controversies.
“We look past the headlines of the day and look at the issues of the people,” Diaz said. “We are keeping focused on the issues people care about and making progress in those areas. We’ve been honored with the trust of the American people because we represent their values and beliefs.”
In spite of the RNC’s optimism, the scandals surrounding Bush have even caused some to draw comparisons to the Watergate scandal, which caused Richard Nixon to step down as president.
“The scandals in the White House now are the closest comparison to Watergate that the country has seen since the Watergate scandal,” said Carl Freedman, English professor, who teaches courses on political literature and is writing a biography of Richard Nixon. “Bush is doing the same thing Nixon did. He’s trying to stonewall the scandal and weather the storm. There are definitely valid comparisons.”
The Republican Party is also facing controversies in the two other branches of the government.
In Congress, Rep. Tom DeLay, former House Majority Leader from Texas, was indicted on a charge of participating in a conspiracy to funnel corporate money into the 2002 state election. Using corporate funds for state election purposes is illegal in Texas.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee is under investigation for selling stock in HCA Inc., a hospital chain founded by his father and brother, shortly before the stock price plunged in June.
In the judicial branch, Harriet Miers, Bush’s first Supreme Court nominee to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Conner, was forced to withdraw because of bipartisan complaints about her judicial inexperience.
Bush’s second nominee Samuel A. Alito is awaiting confirmation hearings in the Senate.
“Republicans are worried right now, and they have every reason to worry,” Hogan said.