On Saturday, May 1, the European Union expanded its membership by ten countries, including eight former Soviet states from Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean islands Malta and Greek Cyprus, raising many questions regarding the future of the quasi-state, its changing alliance with the United States and the destiny of inter-state relations across the globe.
At least in the short term, the new nations and expanded borders will surely add considerable chaos to the EU’s already subtle, delicate and often cumbersome tangle of alliances and backroom dealings.
Currently, the EU stands at a cross-road. Germany and France, the two largest states in the union, follow one another’s policies closely, and together these countries often direct the organization’s course.
Generally, Germany and France take the EU constitution’s “ever-closer union” mission literally, favoring a centralized Europe that stands as competitor to and balancer of American power.
From the standpoint of the United States, it’s unclear whether the new additions will improve relations with the EU, although conventional wisdom generally thinks this to be the case. Because Eastern Europe, or “New Europe” in Rumsfeldian parlance, still remembers America’s prominent role in its liberation from the tyranny of communist Russia, it generally sides with American foreign policy. Poland, the largest of the new nations, lends a considerable amount of troops to our efforts in Iraq.
No doubt a change in the balance of power comes at an opportune time. The Social Democrats’ (read Dennis Kucinich) recent defeat of Spain’s moderately conservative government risks shifting the balance of power toward the Franco-German alliance.
However, Poland, which controls 54 seats in the European Parliament, the same as Spain, looks to ameliorate some of this damage. Even Germany isn’t a sure bet for a centralized Union.
Literally, only Gerhard Schroeder’s last-minute denouncement of Bush’s Second Gulf War saved the German chancellor from defeat by the conservative opposition, the Christian Democrats, despite unpopularity and an abysmal economic record. His government’s insecurity certainly bodes well for U.S. interests.
Despite this, the changes in the EU still pose some questions, most notably, what are the borders of Europe? Cyprus, an island considerably east of Istanbul and east of much of Turkey’s land mass, makes Turkey’s bid for inclusion more likely regardless of its location.
To call Muslim Turkey’s addition to the EU an anomaly would understate the issue, although the United States is pushing for Turkey’s inclusions because of our close alliance with the state.
As Europe moves east when countries like Romania apply, Russia becomes a problem, although the enormity of the Russian population makes any inclusion into the Union unlikely. Former colonies like Morocco have European aspirations, as well as Israel and Caucuses states like Georgia.
So where does the EU end? It seems conceivable that the EU could model the future of world government, but is this a good thing? It could be, as long as the important cultural and regional characteristics of countries could be kept intact within such a union.
While the new countries usually side with the States on foreign-policy issues like a reluctance to form a European common military, they will favor more centralization as they’ll benefit most from handouts from the richer nations.
A country with many small, provincial farmers, Poland in particular will be looking for farming subsidies. Of course, only free trade has catapulted places like the Baltic states (Lithuania etc.) to the highest growth in the region and, like Spain and Ireland in the past, Eastern Europe may become a Cinderella story.
But if the union doesn’t watch itself, new additions could force it to collapse under its own weight. As the borders increase, Europe will become entangled in new and different conflicts in surrounding countries.
Hopefully, the more conservative nations like Sweden, Denmark and Britain can contain the excessive hopes of France and Germany. If all goes well, maybe war in Europe in the future will truly be inconceivable.