With LSU being ranked No. 6 in the country by the College Football Playoff committee, a well-deserved feat given the run the Tigers are on, it might be easy to forget how astonishing this outcome is considering how LSU began the year.
After LSU looked disorganized and incapable of executing in some of the simplest areas of the game in the season opener against Florida State, no one would have expected the Tigers to be in the thick of the playoff race. No one would have foreseen it after a blowout loss to Tennessee in Tiger Stadium, either.
Five straight wins later, including two over top-10 teams, and LSU’s destiny is in its hands.
There’s plenty of work ahead for the Tigers if they want to make their second ever College Football Playoff appearance. For one, they need to take care of business to close out the regular season. UAB proved to be an easy win for LSU. A win against Texas A&M seems to be likely as well, but still shouldn’t be overlooked. As hapless as Texas A&M has looked at times this year, anything can happen in rivalry week, and the roster is still as talented as any.
After the close of the regular season, LSU’s most important game of the season will come next: the SEC Championship against Georgia in Atlanta.
It’s important at this point to give a disclaimer that Georgia is a heavy favorite in the SEC Championship, and it would be a big ask for LSU to knock off the defending national champions, who are playing their best football recently. A loss would be just fine for LSU in the big picture. No one expected Brian Kelly to bring home a conference championship in his first year in Baton Rouge.
And yet Kelly’s success has allowed Tiger fans to dream well into November about a deep postseason run. It’s given fans free range to imagine what LSU could do in the CFP and given them a reason to insert themselves into the annual debate about which teams belong in the playoffs.
Looking at the CFP landscape, a clear hierarchy has emerged. Georgia has established itself as a clear No. 1, followed by two excellent Big 10 East teams in No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. Another tier down is the surprising No. 4 TCU, No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 USC, with LSU slotted at No. 6. Those seven teams seem to be the only ones with reasonable chances of securing a CFP slot at this point in the year.
LSU would need to jump two of the teams ahead of it in order to take a spot in the top four. However, Ohio State and Michigan will eventually face each other, meaning the loser will likely fall out of playoff contention. That makes things simpler.
Various arguments have emerged about how LSU compares to the other teams on the fringe of the playoff race like TCU. Though TCU plays in a comparatively weak Big 12 conference and has won all but three of its games by a margin of 10 or less, the committee seems to have made a statement with their rankings that they respect the Horned Frogs and would favor them over LSU in any head-to-head comparison, at least for now.
In addition, LSU will almost certainly be compared to Tennessee, who now has losses against Georgia and South Carolina. Even if LSU pulls off a miraculous upset of Georgia in the SEC Championship, the result of LSU and Tennessee’s game will loom large. Tennessee thoroughly outclassed LSU and looked like a far better team, and LSU’s improvements since then might not be enough to earn it a higher ranking than the Volunteers.
In the event LSU defeats Georgia, there might even be a debate between LSU and Georgia for one of the final Playoff spots. Even with the head-to-head outcome going the Tigers’ way, the committee might favor Georgia’s overall resume, with impressive wins over Oregon and Tennessee. The committee has made it clear they believe Georgia is the best team in the country and one slip-up may not change that.
As complex as the various arguments for each of the top seven teams are, it would be hard to imagine a world where LSU wins the SEC Championship and isn’t selected for the CFP. The SEC champion has never missed the playoff, so the Tigers’ fate is entirely up to them.
As Brian Kelly’s debut season nears its end, LSU comes to a fork in the road. Behind all of the fluff and arguments about the College Football Playoffs, LSU has two simple options: win out or stay home.
