Ten upsets. A 22-point comeback. Nine of the top sixteen seeds going down. A 1 seed losing to a 16 seed for the first time ever. All part of one of the craziest first weekends of the NCAA Tournament we’ve ever seen.
Note: In this article we consider an “upset” a game in which the winning team was seeded at least five seeds below its opponent for the first round or at least three seeds below its opponent for the second round; i.e., a 10 seed beating a 7 seed in the first round is not an upset but a 6 seed beating a 3 seed in the second round is an upset.
(#) denotes seed.
Making History
In 1985, the NCAA Tournament was expanded to a field of 64 teams, the same as its modern format with the exception of the First Four element (which was added in 2011 to give four more teams a chance to play their way into the tournament). That format includes a four-quadrant bracket with each quadrant having teams seeded 1-16. In the modern era (since 1985), there have been many astonishing upsets in the first round, with 13, 14 and 15 seeds shocking their 4, 3 and 2-seed counterparts, respectively. However, never once has a 16 seed taken down a 1 seed.
Until now.
Entering Friday 1 seeds were 133-0 in the first round. Xavier added a 134th win for the 1 seeds when it took down Texas Southern 102-83 Friday afternoon.
Along came the University of Maryland, Baltimore County Retrievers. After defeating the favored Vermont Catamounts in the America East championship on a last-second shot, the Retrievers earned just their second ever (2008) bid to the NCAA tournament. UMBC drew a 16 seed on Selection Sunday, and a seemingly monstrous matchup with the No. 1 overall seed Virginia Cavaliers. UMBC was quickly written off as most 16 seeds justifiably are given the history of the 1-16 matchup. That didn’t bother senior guard Jairus Lyles, who led the Retrievers with 28 points as he took the form of a hero Friday night to capture American hearts and television screens. Lyles and the Retrievers did what many thought would never happen when they became the first ever 16 seed to defeat a 1, and they did so in stunning fashion. After going into halftime tied at 21, UMBC dominated in the second half and outscored Virginia 53-33 to write themselves into history.
UMBC advanced to the Round of 32 to take on 9 seed Kansas St. The Retrievers, then with most everyone outside of Manhattan, Kansas rooting for them, gave the Wildcats all they could handle, but ultimately came up short, losing 50-43 to KSU in what seemed like a premature ending to what had the potential to be the greatest Cinderella story of all time. Nonetheless, UMBC has etched its name firmly into the chronicles of March Madness.
Elsewhere
Kentucky Wildcats Head Coach John Calipari, who said this year and has said in years past, “You’re not stealing my joy.” after getting what he thought was an unfavorable seed (5), has to be singing a different tune at this point with Kentucky being the top remaining team in its region. The South region of the bracket was totally dismantled and turned upside down as the top four seeds from the region all fell in the first and second rounds. Kentucky will now face Kansas St (9) in the Sweet Sixteen, a significantly less intimidating opponent than Calipari undoubtedly anticipated for his Wildcats’ third game of the tournament. Kentucky, by most accounts, has a cakewalk to the Final Four. McDonald’s All-American DeAndre Ayton and Arizona (4), who many thought would defeat Kentucky in the second round, lost in blowout fashion to the Mid-American Conference’s Buffalo Bulls in the first round. Buffalo (13) did not have the same success against Kentucky, whom the Bulls challenged for a while but ultimately lost to by 20 after the Wildcats pulled away.
The Cincinnati Bearcats, a 2 seed high-major out of the American Athletic Conference, did not get as much hype as teams like Virginia, Villanova and Duke, but they had a highly successful 30-4 regular season and won the AAC title outright. Cincinnati had to fend off an ambitious Georgia State team in the first round who was looking for a repeat of its big 2014 upset over 3 seed Baylor. So it was no surprise when the Bearcats showed up angry in the second round and built a 22-point lead against Nevada (7). It was, however, absolutely flooring to see the way Nevada stormed back down the stretch and took the game from the sixth-ranked team in the nation to tie the second-largest comeback in NCAA Tournament history. It is Nevada, not Cincinnati, who will be dancing on.
Indeed, Cincinnati lost in unbelievable fashion Sunday evening, as their fellow American Athletic Houston Cougars had done the night before. Houston, led by senior phenom and team leader Rob Gray, outplayed Michigan for the entire game but two missed free throws by redshirt senior forward Devin Davis at the end of the game allowed Michigan to steal a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on a buzzer-beating three by Wolverines freshman guard Jordan Poole. It was the heartbreaking end to a great college career for Devin Davis, Rob Gray and their fellow Cougars seniors.
Houston and Cincinnati’s losses that both should have been wins eliminated the American Athletic Conference from the NCAA Tournament, as Wichita St had already lost to Marshall in the first round in an upset few saw coming. The Shockers enjoyed success in their first year in the AAC, going 25-7 and earning a 4 seed in the Big Dance. They were hoping for a shot to knock out Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen, but unfortunately for them, senior Jon Elmore and his Marshall Thundering Herd (13) had other ideas as they sent Wichita St home before even the Round of 32 with an 81-75 defeat of the Shockers. It was the first time in ten years that two 4 seeds lost in the first round.
The American Athletic Conference ended the tournament with a 2-3 record.
Big 12
The Big 12 fielded seven teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, and four remain at the end of the first weekend. TCU (6), Oklahoma (10) and Texas (10) all went down in the first round to Syracuse (11), Rhode Island (7) and Nevada (7) respectively.
Kansas (1), Texas Tech (3), West Virginia (5) and Kansas St (9) are dancing into the Sweet Sixteen after all but WVU were challenged in the second round, but prevailed. Seton Hall (8) played Kansas tough but the Jayhawks withstood them. Chris Chiozza and the Florida Gators (6) gave TTU a good scare (as did SFA in the first round), but the Red Raiders were victorious. Kansas St took on America’s darling Retrievers of UMBC, but the battle-tested Wildcats had enough in them to end that Cinderella story. West Virginia beat Marshall (13) easily.
The Big 12 is currently 8-3 in the NCAA tournament.
ACC
The ACC began the tournament with nine teams. Four are still standing.
Virginia (1), Miami (6), Virginia Tech (8) and North Carolina State (9) all fell in the first round.
North Carolina (2) was trounced in the second round by Texas A&M (7) in Charlotte, another upset most did not foresee.
Duke (2), Clemson (5), Florida St (9) and Syracuse (11) will be playing in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke cruised past Iona (15) and Rhode Island (7). Clemson crushed Auburn in the ugliest 4-5 game ever. Florida State finished the game on an 18-4 run to upset Xavier (1), which also makes this the first time in 14 years that fewer than three 1 seeds will be in the Sweet Sixteen. Syracuse silenced those questioning the merit of its at-large bid by upsetting Michigan St (3), whom many picked to win it all, in Detroit as Michigan St shot 17-for-61 from the field. Despite them being an 11 seed, it’s hard to call Syracuse a Cinderella. The Orange seem to live on the bubble and two years ago when, like this year, many thought they shouldn’t be in the tournament, they mounted four straight wins and landed themselves in the Final Four.
The ACC is currently 9-5 in the NCAA Tournament.
SEC
Only two of the SEC’s eight tournament teams remain after two rounds. One of them is not terribly surprising in Kentucky (5) and the other is aforementioned Texas A&M (7). While maybe the fact that Texas A&M surged and took down a giant in the Tarheels isn’t stunning, the way they did it certainly is. The Aggies defeated UNC in a 21-point obliteration, 86-65, to move on to the second weekend.
Arkansas (7) and Missouri (8) lost in the first round. Chris Chiozza and Florida (6) couldn’t quite overcome Keenan Evans and Texas Tech (3) in the second round. Tennessee (3) was upset by Loyola-Chicago (11). Auburn (4) lost an ugly blowout to Clemson (5). Collin Sexton and Alabama (9) were no match for Villanova (1).
The SEC is 6-6 in the NCAA Tournament so far.
Big Ten
The Big Ten is 6-2 in the NCAA Tournament which sounds pretty good but the reality is that the Big Ten is way down this year and it’s lucky to have two teams in the Sweet Sixteen as Michigan easily could have and should have lost to Houston. Michigan (3) and Purdue (2) are still standing but Purdue forward Isaac Haas fractured his elbow in the first round so the Boilermakers outlook seems grim heading into their tilt with Texas Tech.
Michigan State (3) and Ohio St (5) were one and done as each took care of its first round opponent but was upstaged in the Round of 32 by Syracuse (11) and Gonzaga (4), respectively.
Big East
Of the six Big East teams who made the tournament, only Villanova (1) remains. Creighton (8) and Providence (10) lost in the first round. Xavier (1) lost in the second round after commanding the game the whole way against Florida State (9). Butler (10) gave Purdue (2) a solid challenge but Purdue prevailed. Angel Delgado and Seton Hall (8) put forth a valiant effort against Kansas (1) but ultimately Kansas was too much.
Villanova will look to improve the Big East’s 5-5 tournament record as its lone representative in the Sweet Sixteen.
Atlantic 10
The Atlantic-10 fielded three high-majors for the NCAA Tournament: Rhode Island (7), St. Bonaventure (11) and Davidson (12).
The Bonnies were one of the last four teams in so they had to play in the First Four last Tuesday, and they were victorious over fellow 11 seed UCLA. St. Bonaventure earned a spot in the Round of 64 but was not powerful enough to overcome Florida (6). Davidson (12), in the NCAA tournament by virtue of the conference tournament outbid, challenged Kentucky (5) but fell to the Wildcats in the first round. This was only the fifth time in 33 years that zero 12 seeds upset a 5 seed.
The 7 seed Rhode Island Rams enjoyed some early success in the tournament, as they knocked off Trae Young and the 10 seed Oklahoma Sooners in the first game of the Round of 64, but were beaten handily by the Duke Blue Devils (2).
The Atlantic 10 went 2-3 in the NCAA Tournament.
Pac-12
It was a miserable result for the Pac-12 in this year’s Big Dance. USC was snubbed to begin with. 11 seeds UCLA and Arizona St were both dealt First Four bids, neither of which took advantage as they were bounced by St. Bonaventure and Syracuse, respectively. Arizona (4), as was already mentioned, was manhandled by Buffalo (13) in the first round.
The Pac-12 went 0-3 in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Cinderella
The 11 seed Loyola-Chicago Ramblers still stand after Donte Ingram’s deep 3 at the buzzer against Miami (6) gave us our first upset of the tournament on Thursday and that was followed up with Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Clayton Custer’s shot that took a lucky bounce and rimmed in with 3.6 seconds to go after Tennessee (3) had come back to take the lead in a game that the Ramblers controlled most of the way.
The Ramblers credit their coach, Porter Moser, for their success, as well as their team chaplain and biggest fan, 98-year-old Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt, now an “international sensation” to use her own words.
The Ramblers ramble on to the first game of the Sweet Sixteen to face the 7 seed Nevada Wolfpack Thursday evening at 7:07 ET.
Favorites
At this point the “clear favorite” may be Villanova, but you can’t ignore Kansas and Duke. They looked strong through the first two rounds. Kansas and Duke, however, are in the same region, so only one of those two could go to San Antonio. If it’s total chalk the rest of the way, we would see Kentucky (5), Villanova (1), Kansas (1) and Michigan (3) in the Final Four – a lot of blue. If it’s total chaos the rest of the way, we could see Loyola-Chicago (11), West Virginia (5), Syracuse (11) and Florida St (9) in the Final Four. Both total chalk and total chaos are unlikely.
Remaining Seeds
With all of the bracketology that precedes the tournament and bracket theory regarding how many top seeds will survive each round, it’s interesting to look at how many of each seed remain. This is the seed outlook as it stands now.
2 one seeds (Kansas, Villanova)
2 two seeds (Duke, Purdue)
2 three seeds (Michigan, Texas Tech)
1 four seed (Gonzaga)
3 five seeds (Clemson, Kentucky, West Virginia)
2 seven seeds (Nevada, Texas A&M)
2 nine seeds (Florida St, Kansas St)
2 eleven seeds (Loyola-Chicago, Syracuse)
The average remaining seed is 5.3, the highest it’s been in 18 years. The most chalky region is the Midwest which has a 1, 2, 3 and 5 seed remaining.
Whether you’re cheering for chalk or chaos, the rest of the tournament promises to bring more excitement.
Sweet Sixteen Schedule
Thursday
11 Loyola-Chicago vs 7 Nevada | 7:07 ET, CBS
7 Texas A&M vs 3 Michigan | 7:37 ET, TBS
9 Kansas St vs 5 Kentucky | 9:37 ET, CBS
9 Florida St vs 4 Gonzaga | 9:59 ET, TBS
Friday
5 Clemson vs 1 Kansas | 7:07 ET, CBS
5 West Virginia vs 1 Villanova | 7:27 ET, TBS
11 Syracuse vs 2 Duke | 9:37 ET, CBS
3 Texas Tech vs 2 Purdue | 9:57 ET, TBS
