With the 2026 hurricane season officially beginning on June 1 and ending on Nov. 30, LSU experts have been working to provide predictions and preparation tips for residents of Louisiana.
There are many factors that meteorologists use to make predictions for a storm season, including La Niña or El Niño patterns, sea surface temperatures and even precipitation anomalies in West Africa.
Most forecast groups, including NOAA and Colorado State University models, agree that there is a below or near-normal hurricane season to be expected. Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grymes explained that this prediction would mean this season would produce 12 named storms, compared to the 30-year average of 14 named storms per year.
The driving factor in this prediction, according to Grymes, is this year’s El Niño pattern.
“El Niño is a period when water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal,” said Grymes. “By changing, literally changing the physical structure of the surface temperatures in the Pacific, we change the dynamics of the atmosphere above it.”
This change in atmospheric conditions creates an increase in wind shear above the Atlantic Ocean, making it harder for storms to develop.
Meteorologists are also expecting higher-than-normal surface sea temperatures, which are known to increase storm numbers when considered alone.
“We’ve got an El Niño year, which would reduce numbers, but a tendency in the last couple of decades for the Atlantic to be warmer than normal, which increases the numbers,” said Grymes. “So, it’s kind of a tug of war between which of those two is going to be more dominant.”
The combination of El Niño patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures creates a below-average prediction for the 2026 storm season by 10% to 20%.
LSU researchers, like Dr. Paul Miller, have also developed forecasting models to create stronger predictions for storm seasons. From work with Gulf forecasting to AI-created forecast models, LSU is also able to produce information to directly assist Louisiana citizens.
But both Miller and Grymes agree that a below-average forecast does not mean that Louisiana residents should let their guard down.
Miller said, “A slow year might have fewer storms, but the ones that do form can be just as potent and dangerous as those during a busy year. In the Gulf of America, storms can develop quickly, sometimes with only a few days’ warning before landfall, so staying weather-aware is important.”
“So the first thing I tell people right there is that there should be enough information that lets you know you need to be prepared this year, regardless of what the storm frequency count from the experts is,” said Grymes.
Grymes also added that many notable storms to have made landfall in Louisiana have taken place during El Niño years, such as Betsy, Camille, Danny and Audrey.
“You have to be ready. Then beyond that, most folks have had enough experience in the last five or 10 to 20 years to know what the potential storm impacts will be for their community, so you just plan for that, and then part of the planning process is to also evaluate your own family’s needs.”
Grymes remarked that 29 storms have impacted Louisiana in the past 25 years, which he considers incredibly active. During the past 25 years, there were two seasons in which four storms impacted the state.
“You have to be ready. Then beyond that, most folks have had enough experience in the last 5 or 10 to 20 years to know what the potential storm impacts will be for their community, so you just plan for that, and then part of the planning process is to also evaluate your own family’s needs.”
