This week might not feature as many ranked matchups as last week, but it still features a lot of interesting and important games. Nine undefeated teams remain, with some of them facing challenging teams that could put their playoff runs in jeopardy.
One undefeated team is guaranteed to fall this week, with Clemson and Syracuse matching up. The question is, will there be more?
Let’s get into it.
Henry’s Last Week: 3-2
Penn State vs. Michigan (-7) W
UConn (+9.5) vs. Ball State W
Oklahoma State vs. TCU (-4) L
Clemson (-3.5) vs. Florida State W
Mississippi State (-4) vs. Kentucky L
Henry’s Season: 21-19
Thankfully, there’s not much to complain about from last week. I personally feel like picking TCU was a win, being that they won by three points in overtime.
Henry’s Picks:
Kansas vs. Baylor, 11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
The Pick: Kansas +10
A part of me feels like I don’t have to explain myself on this one. Another part of me knows that when a pick looks too obvious, it usually isn’t. Usually.
I know the Jayhawk defense is lackluster, but so is Baylor’s. The difference here is that Kansas puts up points in bunches and the Bears do not. Against FBS opponents, Baylor is averaging 31.6 points to Kansas’s 37.5. Baylor’s FBS schedule includes Texas State and BYU, the latter of which just gave up 51 points against Arkansas.
Blake Shapen’s progression as the starting quarterback at Baylor has been noteworthy, but Baylor’s defense will not be able to keep Kansas at bay, even with Jalon Daniels still being sidelined. Shapen is also listed as questionable; even if he does play, however, the Bears will have trouble keeping up, and I definitely don’t expect them to win by more than 10 points.
Score: Kansas 34 Baylor 31
No. 9 UCLA vs. No. 10 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. CT, FOX
The Pick: UCLA +6.5
Since it escaped getting upset by South Alabama just over a month ago, UCLA has been on a tear, winning three straight to start its PAC-12 schedule. Those wins include ones over then-No. 15 Washington and No. 15 Utah, who just put a damper on USC’s run to the College Football Playoff with its 43-42 defeat of the Trojans.
Oregon has found its footing since its opening blowout loss against Georgia, but its most impressive wins are between BYU and Washington State, which are decent teams but sport 4-3 records. Other than that, the Ducks have defeated Stanford, Arizona and Eastern Washington.
Now, I don’t necessarily discount all that they’ve done over the past few games. Their offense is potent, with Bo Nix playing much better football at a non-SEC school and the running back duo of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington averaging over six yards per carry (Irving averages 7.2). Their defense has been solid as well, but they rank near the bottom of the country at allowing third-down conversions and aren’t particularly great at rushing the passer or dealing with the pass in general.
I think UCLA’s defense will exploit that all day, and Oregon will falter in its first real test since Georgia.
Score: UCLA 38 Oregon 23
Boise State vs. Air Force (-2.5) (6 p.m. CT,
CBSSN)
The Pick: Boise State +2
Boise State started the season 2-2, with its last loss to UTEP in Week 4 being particularly difficult to watch if you are a Broncos fan. After that loss, long-time starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier opted to depart from the team and enter the transfer portal.
Since then, the team is 2-0 with an average point differential of 21 in those wins. Granted, they did come against San Diego State and Fresno State, who are normally contenders for the Mountain West but have suffered setbacks in 2022. But in those wins, Boise State seemed to find its offensive identity, which now features an onslaught of rushing led by running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty and quarterback Taylen Green.
The Broncos rushed for over 300 yards in both games and looked good doing it, and they’ve now had a bye to further develop their new style of moving the ball. Air Force is a great team and leads the nation in rushing, but Boise State’s defense has been more effective at stopping the run, and I expect that to be the difference here.
Score: Boise State 25 Air Force 21
Mississippi State vs. Alabama, 6 p.m. CT, ESPN
The Pick: Alabama -21
The last time Alabama lost back-to-back regular season games was in Saban’s first year with the program fifteen seasons ago. In fact, the last time it lost in the regular season (2021 vs. Texas A&M), the opponent faced Mississippi the very next week. The Crimson Tide steamrolled them 49-9.
While the Bulldogs have improved since then and Will Rogers should still have success against an iffy Tide secondary, I don’t expect that to save them here. I know this Alabama team has its weaknesses, but it’s still Alabama, and it’s still coached by Nick Saban.
Score: Alabama 52 Mississippi State 28
San Diego State vs. Nevada, 9:30 p.m CT, CBSSN
The Pick: San Diego State -7
The Aztecs have taken a step back from their stellar 2021 season, with the defense losing much of its potency and the offense having immeasurable problems at quarterback. They had problems like that last season as well, switching multiple times throughout the season, and neglect at recruiting quarterbacks has consistently sent them back over the years.
However, the team and its fans did receive temporary relief in that regard against Hawai’i. Jalen Mayden started his first game for San Diego State and put up the best passing performance Aztec fans have seen all season by far. He completed 67% of his passes for 322 yards and a touchdown, along with leading six drives that went for more than 30 yards.
Coming off a bye to face a Nevada defense that’s on the same level of bad as the Hawai’i defense, he could carry them to their first decisive win of the season.
