April means hope in the NFL.
Fans hope for the next great player. NFL franchises hope for the next team savior.
There are hundreds of mock drafts, thousands of hours spent analyzing 40-yard dash times and endless predictions on where a player could land.
Ultimately, where a player will go and how his career will end can be a crapshoot, especially for LSU players.
One need look no further than former LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, whose career with the Oakland Raiders fizzled quickly. The Raiders selected him with the first overall pick of the 2007 draft with the expectation he would be their next franchise quarterback.
Russell threw only 18 touchdowns to 23 interceptions in his three NFL seasons and was out the door by 2010.
Draft analysts gushed about Russell’s potential and saw him as a worthy top pick, brushing aside questions by the media of his commitment to football.
“The doubts persist,” wrote The New York Times’ William Rhoden in 2007.
But even Rhoden couldn’t look past Russell’s physical skills.
“Russell is an extraordinary talent and [Denver Broncos quarterback Brady] Quinn will have a long run in the league,” he wrote at the end of his column.
Rhoden was wrong on both counts.
Four years after the Russell debacle, LSU has another talented player in cornerback Patrick Peterson. Peterson has received perhaps even more hype than Russell did in the days leading up to the draft.
“He’s the best LSU football player I’ve covered in 27 years,” said NFL draft analyst Mike Detillier. “He’s a special athlete. He exudes that confidence on and off the field. I see a guy with great passion and desire to succeed.
Rene Nadeau, college football analyst for ESPN and TigerVision, said he can’t see many scenarios in which Peterson would fail, based on his natural talent and maturity.
“He’s got too many things going for him,” Nadeau said. “He’s very mature for the position he’s in now.”
Another overwhelming factor can be money and work ethic. Both proved detrimental to Russell.
“No one can tell you their reaction to instantly becoming rich,” Detillier said. “Seventy percent of lottery winners are broke after the first 24 months.”
Nadeau said work ethic will make or break a player in the NFL. For every player like Russell, there are 10 players who slip under the radar, quietly exceeding expectations.
Undrafted LSU center Rudy Niswanger has started 31 games for the Kansas City Chiefs. Guard Stephen Peterman, a third-round draft pick for the Cowboys in 2004, started every game for the Detroit Lions last season.
Tailback Joseph Addai went to the Indianapolis Colts in 2006 with the 30th pick of the draft. He has been a starter since his second year in the league.
“He only played tailback one season,” Nadeau said. “For him to be picked in the first round and do as well as he’s done is a surprise.”
It’s all about going to the right team, Detillier said. Players like third-round pick Jacob Hester and first-round pick Glenn Dorsey went to unusual situations and have struggled as a result.
Hester went to the San Diego Chargers, who already had a short-yardage running back in LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chargers converted him to fullback.
“What did you draft him for?” Detillier said. “He gave you effort and he was a tough guy, but he wasn’t built to be a blocker.”
Detillier said he saw a similar situation with Dorsey, who went to the Kansas City Chiefs with the fifth overall pick in 2008. A natural 4-3 defensive player, Dorsey had to switch to the 3-4 defense with the Chiefs.
“Why would you do that?” Detillier said. “Sometimes the fit isn’t right. A lot of times it’s adjusting to the talent you have on hand.”
 
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Contact Katherine Terrell at [email protected]